Nangona into yakutshanje ingxelo yekota evela kwi-European Travel Commission (ETC) ibonisa amanani athabathayo, oku kusajongwa njengolunye uhlobo lokubuyisela. Inokwenzeka njani loo nto?
Ngo-2022, abakhenkethi bamazwe ngamazwe abafika eYurophu baqikelelwa ukuba baya kuba ngama-30% ngaphantsi kwemithamo ye-2019, exhaswa kuhambo lwasekhaya kunye nolufutshane. Uhambo lwasekhaya kuqikelelwa ukuba luza kubuyiselwa ngokupheleleyo ngo-2022, ngelixa uhambo lwamazwe ngamazwe lungalindelekanga ukuba ludlule kumanqanaba e-2019 kude kube ngu-2025.
Oku kubonisa njani ukomelela kukhenketho lwaseYurophu?
Ngamafutshane, kucingelwa ukuba ukhenketho lwaseYurophu luza kuqhubeka nokuchacha ngo-2022, nangona ngesantya esisezantsi kunokuba bekulindelwe ngaphambili. Ingxelo ye-ETC ibeka iliso kwimpembelelo yobhubhani we-COVID-19 kunye noqoqosho lwangoku kunye ne-geopolitical headwinds, kwaye ngaphandle kokuhlala kwindawo engalunganga, idatha yonyaka ukuya kumhla we-Q1 2022 ibonise ukuba kuzo zonke iindawo zokunika ingxelo, abafikayo baqikelelwa ukuba ngama-43. I-% iphantsi kwi-weighted basis ngokumalunga no-2019.
Oku ngenene luphuculo ngaphezu kwama-60% okwehla okubonwe kwikota edlulileyo. I-rebounds ekhawulezayo esekelwe kwidatha ukuya kuFebruwari yabikwa yiSerbia (-11%) kunye neTurkey (-12%). Ezinye iindawo ezifumana kwakhona ngesantya esikhawulezayo ngokusekwe kwidatha ukuya kuFebruwari-Matshi 2022 yiBulgaria (-18%), iAustria (-33%), iSpain kunye neMonaco (zombini -34%), kunye neCroatia (-37%).
ULuís Araújo, uMongameli we-ETC, uLuis Araujo, uthe: “Ekuhambeni kobhubhani, icandelo lezokhenketho laseYurophu libe nobuchule bokujongana nokungaqiniseki kunye nemiceli mngeni. Icandelo liya lichacha ngokuthe chu kwi-COVID-19 kwaye kukho isizathu sokuba nethemba. Nangona kunjalo, ukhenketho lwaseYurophu kuya kufuneka lugcine obu bunzima unyaka wonke njengoko iYurophu iqhubeka nokujongana nokuwa okubalulekileyo kwingxabano eqhubekayo yaseRussia-Ukrainian. I-ETC icela amaziko e-EU ukuba aqhubeke nokubonelela ngoncedo lwezemali olwaneleyo nangexesha kunye nenye inkxaso kwicandelo, ngakumbi kwiindawo ezixhomekeke kakhulu kukhenketho oluvela eRussia naseUkraine.
Iziphumo ze-COVID-19 ziyehla
Abakhenkethi bamazwe ngamazwe babonisa ukuba bazimisele ngakumbi ukuhamba kwaye batyelele iYurophu. Amazwe amaninzi, anje ngeSpain, France, kunye ne-Italiya, ayisusile imfuneko yovavanyo lwe-COVID ngaphambi kokuhamba, ngokuxhomekeke kwimeko yokugonywa. Ngenxa yezi zenzo, iNtshona Yurophu iqikelelwa ukuba yeyona ndawo iqhuba kakuhle kwihlabathi kulo nyaka, nangona i-24% engaphantsi kwamanqanaba ka-2019.
Owona msebenzi ubalaseleyo yi-United States kuzo zonke iimarike zomthombo wexesha elide. Ukukhula komndilili wonyaka ukusuka e-US ukuya eYurophu kulindeleke ukuba kube yi-33.6% kwisithuba seminyaka emi-5 i-2021-2026, kunye nokwanda okukhawulezayo okuphawulwe kuMntla Yurophu (+ 41.5%). Lilonke, kuhlala kunjalo ukuba uhambo olungaphaya kwe-2022 lokuwela i-Atlantiki phakathi kwe-US neYurophu iya kuba yenye yezona zinto ziqhuba icandelo lezokhenketho laseYurophu.
Kwimeko yaseTshayina, eyona nkcitho inkulu yokuhamba emhlabeni, akukhange kubekho zimpawu zikhawulezayo zokufika kwabakhenkethi baseTshayina babuyela kumanqanaba angaphambi kobhubhani njengoko ilizwe linyamezele ukuqhambuka okukhulu kwe-Omicron eyahlukileyo eShanghai nakwezinye izixeko ezikhulu. Abasemagunyeni baphinde bamisela ukuvalwa okungqongqo kunye novavanyo olusisinyanzelo ukucinezela ukusasazeka kwale ntsholongwane, kwaye ngaphezulu kwe-50% yeendawo ekunikwe ingxelo kuzo zibone ukwehla okungaphaya kwe-90% yabakhenkethi baseTshayina xa kuthelekiswa no-2019.
Impembelelo yoHlaselo lwaseUkraine yiRussia
Njengoko kulindelwe, i ukuhlaselwa kweRashiya eUkraine kuqikelelwa ukuba kuya kuncitshiswa uhambo oluphumayo kuwo omabini la mazwe, yaye ukongezelela, amazwe akufutshane nawo aya kuthwaxwa yimiphumo emibi yolu ngquzulwano lukhohlakeleyo. Ngenxa yoku, ukuchacha kweMpuma Yurophu kuye kwabuyiselwa umva ngo-2025, abafikayo ngoku baqikelelwa ukuba baya kuba ngama-43% ezantsi ngo-2022 xa kuthelekiswa no-2019.
Kucingelwa ukuba iCyprus, iMontenegro, iLatvia, iFinland, iEstonia, kunye neLithuania, ziya kuba zezona zichaphazeleka kakhulu luhlaselo, njengoko kulapho amaRussia enza khona ubuncinci i-10% yohambo lwangaphakathi lulonke ngo-2019. Kwakhona, abakhenkethi baseRussia baqhelekile. abachitha imali eninzi xa behamba, ngoko ke imali yabo elahlekileyo kwimbonakalo yomhlaba iya kuba nefuthe elikhulu kwinkcitho yokhenketho. Ngo-2019, inkcitho yaseRussia ibe negalelo kwi-34% yenkcitho iyonke eMontenegro, i-25% eCyprus kunye ne-16% eLatvia.
Uqhagamshelo lomoya lwaseYurophu-Asia lunempembelelo ngenxa yokuvalwa kwendawo yomoya yaseRussia, Ukraine, Moldova, kunye neBelarus kuninzi lwabathwali beYurophu basentshona. Ngaphezulu kobunzima bokuhamba, ingxabano yaseRashiya-Ukraine ichaphazela uqoqosho ngezigwebo zaseRashiya ezibangela ukuba iindleko ze-jet ze-jet zinyuke eziya kuthi ngokwendalo zichaphazele iinqwelomoya.
Kuphando lwakutsha nje olwenziwa yi-MMGY Travel Intelligence, i-62% yabahambi base-US abaceba ukutyelela iYurophu bachaza iinkxalabo malunga nemfazwe yase-Ukraine esasazeka kumazwe akufutshane njengento echaphazela izicwangciso. Le nkxalabo iphakame ngokuphindwe kabini kunenkxalabo nge-COVID-19.
INTO ONOKUYITHATHA KWELI NQAKU:
- In the case of China, typically the biggest travel spenders on the planet, there have been no immediate signs of Chinese tourist arrivals returning to pre-pandemic levels as the country is enduring a severe outbreak of the Omicron variant in Shanghai and other big cities.
- The ETC report monitors the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as current economic and geopolitical headwinds, and despite remaining in negative territory, year-to-date data for Q1 2022 showed that across all reporting destinations, arrivals are estimated to be 43% lower on a weighted basis relative to 2019.
- It is anticipated that Cyprus, Montenegro, Latvia, Finland, Estonia, and Lithuania, will be the most impacted by the invasion, as this is where Russians made up at least 10% of total inbound travel in 2019.
