Iinqwelomoya zinciphisa ilahleko ngo-2022 kwaye zibuyela kwinzuzo ngo-2023

I-International Air Transport Association (IATA) ilindele ukubuyela kwinzuzo kwishishini leenqwelomoya zehlabathi ngo-2023 njengoko iinqwelomoya ziqhubeka nokunciphisa ilahleko evela kwiziphumo zobhubhani we-COVID-19 kwishishini labo ngo-2022. 

• Kwi-2023, iinqwelomoya kulindeleke ukuba zithumele inzuzo encinci ye-4.7 yeebhiliyoni zeedola-i-0.6% yenzuzo yenzuzo. Yinzuzo yokuqala ukusukela ngo-2019 xa ingeniso yoshishino yayizibhiliyoni ezingama-26.4 zeedola (i-3.1% yomda wenzuzo eshiyekileyo). 

• Ngo-2022, ilahleko yenqwelo moya kulindeleke ukuba ibeyi-6.9 yeebhiliyoni zeedola (impucuko kwilahleko ye-9.7 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2022 kwimbonakalo kaJuni ye-IATA). Oku kungcono kakhulu kunelahleko ye-42.0 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kunye ne-137.7 yeebhiliyoni zeedola eziye zafunyanwa ngo-2021 nango-2020 ngokulandelelanayo.

“Ukomelela kuye kwaba luphawu kwiinqwelomoya kwintlekele ye-COVID-19. Njengoko sijonge ku-2023, ukubuyiswa kwemali kuyakuvela ngenzuzo yokuqala yeshishini ukusukela ngo-2019. Yimpumelelo enkulu leyo xa kuqwalaselwe ubungakanani bomonakalo wezimali noqoqosho obangelwe zizithintelo zobhubhani ezibekwe ngurhulumente. Kodwa inzuzo ye-4.7 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwingeniso yoshishino ye-779 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ikwabonisa ukuba kukho umhlaba omninzi onokwenziwa ukubeka ishishini lehlabathi kwinqanaba eliqinileyo lezemali. Iinqwelomoya ezininzi zinengeniso eyaneleyo yokutsala inkunzi efunekayo yokuqhubela ishishini phambili njengoko likhupha ikharbhoni. Kodwa abanye abaninzi batsala nzima ngenxa yezizathu ezahlukahlukeneyo. Oku kubandakanya ukulawulwa okunzima, iindleko eziphezulu, imigaqo-nkqubo karhulumente engahambelaniyo, iziseko zophuhliso ezingasebenziyo kunye nekhonkco lexabiso apho imivuzo yokudibanisa ihlabathi ingasasazwanga ngokulinganayo, "utshilo uWillie Walsh. IATAUMlawuli-Jikelele.

2022

Ithemba eliphuculweyo lika-2022 lisukela ikakhulu kwizivuno ezomeleziweyo kunye nolawulo lweendleko eziluqilima phambi kokunyuka kwamaxabiso amafutha.

Izivuno zabagibeli kulindeleke ukuba zikhule nge-8.4% (ukusuka kwi-5.6% ekulindeleke ngoJuni). Ikhuthazwa loo mandla, ingeniso yabakhweli kulindeleke ukuba ikhule iye kuthi ga kwi-438 yeebhiliyoni zeedola (isuka kwi-239 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2021).

Iingeniso zempahla yomoya zidlale indima ephambili ekunciphiseni ilahleko ngeengeniso ezilindeleke ukuba zifikelele kwi-201.4 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Olu luphuculo xa kuthelekiswa noqikelelo lukaJuni, ubukhulu becala olungatshintshwanga ukusuka ngo-2021, kwaye ngaphezulu kwe-100.8 yeebhiliyoni zeedola efunyenwe ngo-2019.

Ingeniso iyonke kulindeleke ukuba ikhule nge-43.6% xa kuthelekiswa no-2021, ifikelele kwi-727 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.

Uninzi lwezinye izinto zavela ngendlela engalunganga kulandela ukuthotywa kokulindelweyo kokukhula kwe-GDP (ukusuka kwi-3.4% ngoJuni ukuya kwi-2.9%), kunye nokulibaziseka ekususeni izithintelo ze-COVID-19 kwiimarike ezininzi, ngakumbi i-China. Uqikelelo lukaJuni lwe-IATA lwalulindele ukuba ukugcwala kwabakhweli kuya kufikelela kwi-82.4% yamanqanaba entlekele yangaphambili ngo-2022, kodwa ngoku kubonakala ngathi ukubuyiswa kwemfuno yoshishino kuya kufikelela kwi-70.6% yamanqanaba angaphambili. Umthwalo, kwelinye icala, bekulindeleke ukuba udlule kumanqanaba ka-2019 nge-11.7%, kodwa ngoku kunokwenzeka ukuba umodareyithwe ukuya kuma-98.4% amanqanaba ka-2019.

Kwicala leendleko, ixabiso le-kerosene ye-jet kulindeleke ukuba libe yi-avareji ye-138.8 ye-barrel ngonyaka, iphezulu kakhulu kune-$ 125.5 / umgqomo okulindeleke ngoJuni. Oko kubonisa amaxabiso e-oyile aphezulu abaxiwe kukusasazeka kwe-jet crack okungaphezulu kweeavareji zembali. Nokuba kukho imfuno esezantsi ekhokelela ekucuthekeni kokusetyenziswa, oku kunyuse ixabiso lepetroli kwishishini ukuya kuma-222 eebhiliyoni zeedola (ngaphezulu kwe-192 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ebilindelwe ngoJuni).

“Ukuba iinqwelomoya zikwazile ukunciphisa ilahleko yazo ngo-2022, ngenxa yokunyuka kweendleko, ukunqongophala kwabasebenzi, ugwayimbo, ukuphazamiseka kokusebenza kwiindawo ezininzi eziphambili kunye nokukhula kokungaqiniseki kwezoqoqosho kuthetha lukhulu malunga nomnqweno wabantu kunye nesidingo sokunxibelelana. Kwezinye iimakethi eziphambili ezifana neTshayina ezigcina izithintelo ixesha elide kunokuba bekulindelwe, amanani abakhweli awele kancinci kulindelo. Siza kuwugqiba unyaka malunga ne-70% yevolumu yabakhweli ka-2019. Kodwa ngokuphuculwa kwesivuno kuwo omabini amashishini emithwalo kunye nabakhweli, iinqwelomoya ziya kufikelela kwingeniso yengeniso, utshilo uWalsh.

2023

Ngo-2023 ishishini leenqwelomoya kulindeleke ukuba linyukele kwingeniso. Iinkampani zeenqwelomoya kulindeleke ukuba zithole inzuzo yehlabathi jikelele ezibhiliyoni ezi-4.7 zeerandi kwingeniso yeebhiliyoni zeedola ezingama-779 (i-0.6% yomda oshiyekileyo). Le mpucuko ilindelekileyo iza nangona kukho ukungaqiniseki okukhulayo kwezoqoqosho njengoko ukukhula kwe-GDP yehlabathi kucotha ukuya kwi-1.3% (ukusuka kwi-2.9% ngowama-2022).

"Ngaphandle kokungaqiniseki kwezoqoqosho, kukho izizathu ezininzi zokuba nethemba malunga no-2023. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-oyile esezantsi kunye nemfuno eqhubekayo ye-pent-up kufuneka incede ukugcina iindleko ziphantsi njengoko ukukhula olomeleleyo kuqhubeka. Kwangaxeshanye, kunye nemida ecekethekileyo, kwanotshintsho olungabalulekanga kuyo nayiphi na kwezi ziguquguqukayo lunamandla okutshintsha ibhalansi ibe ngummandla ongalunganga. Ukuqaphela kunye nokuguquguquka kuya kuba ngundoqo, ”utshilo uWalsh.

Abaqhubi abaphambili

Umgibeli: Ishishini labakhweli kulindeleke ukuba livelise ingeniso ye-522 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Imfuno yabakhweli kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwi-85.5% yamanqanaba ka-2019 ekuhambeni konyaka ka-2023. Okuninzi koku kulindelekileyo kuthathela ingqalelo ukungaqiniseki kwemigaqo-nkqubo ye-China ye-Zero COVID enyanzelisa iimarike zasekhaya nezamazwe ngamazwe. Nangona kunjalo, amanani abakhweli kulindeleke ukuba adlule kumanqaku eebhiliyoni ezine okokuqala ukusukela ngo-2019, abahambi abazibhiliyoni ezi-4.2 kulindeleke ukuba babhabhe. Izivuno zabakhweli, nangona kunjalo, kulindeleke ukuba zithambe (-1.7%) njengoko iindleko zamandla ezisezantsi zigqithiselwa kumthengi, nangona imfuno yabakhweli ikhula ngokukhawuleza (+21.1%) kunomthamo wabakhweli (+18.0%).

Cargo: Iimarike zempahla kulindeleke ukuba zibe phantsi koxinzelelo olwandisiweyo ngo-2023. Iingeniso kulindeleke ukuba zibe yi-149.4 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, eyi-$ 52 yeebhiliyoni engaphantsi kwe-2022 kodwa kunjalo i-$ 48.6 yezigidigidi ezinamandla ngaphezu kwe-2019. Ngokungaqiniseki kwezoqoqosho, imithwalo yempahla kulindeleke ukuba iyancipha ukuya kwi-57.7 yezigidi zeetoni. , ukusuka kwincopho ye-65.6 yezigidi zeetoni kwi-2021. Njengoko umthamo wesisu ukhula ngokuhambelana nokubuyiswa kweemarike zabahambi, isivuno kulindeleke ukuba sithathe inyathelo elibalulekileyo. I-IATA ilindele ukuwa kwe-22.6% kwimveliso yempahla, ubukhulu becala ekupheleni konyaka xa impembelelo yamanyathelo okupholisa okunyuka kwamaxabiso kulindeleke ukuba ilume. Ukubeka ukwehla kwesivuno ngokomxholo, izivuno zempahla zikhule nge-52.5% ngo-2020, 24.2% ngo-2021 kunye ne-7.2% ngo-2022. Nokuba ukwehla okukhulu kunye nokulindelweyo kushiya imveliso yempahla ingaphezulu kwamanqanaba angaphambi kwe-COVID.

iindleko: Iindleko zizonke kulindeleke ukuba zikhule nge-5.3% ukuya kwi-776 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Oko kukhula kulindeleke ukuba kube ngamanqaku epesenti ye-1.8 ngaphantsi kokukhula kwengeniso, ngaloo ndlela kuxhasa ukubuyisela kwinzuzo. Uxinzelelo lweendleko lusekho ngenxa yabasebenzi, izakhono kunye nokunqongophala kwezakhono. Iindleko zeziseko zophuhliso nazo ziyinkxalabo.

Nangona kunjalo, iindleko zeyunithi ye-non-fuel kulindeleke ukuba ziwe kwi-39.8 yeesenti / i-toni yeekhilomitha ekhoyo (ezantsi ukusuka kwi-41.7 yeesenti / i-ATK ngo-2022 kwaye iphantse ifanise i-39.2 yeesenti / i-ATK efunyenwe ngo-2019). Iinzuzo zobuchule beenqwelo-moya kulindeleke ukuba ziqhube imiba yomthwalo wabakhweli ukuya kuma-81.0 %, ngaphantsi nje kancinane kwe-82.6% efunyenwe ngo-2019.

Ixabiso elipheleleyo le-fuel 2023 lilindeleke ukuba libe yi-229 yeebhiliyoni zeedola-ezihambelanayo kwi-30% yeendleko. Uqikelelo lwe-IATA lusekwe kwi-Brent crude kwi-$92.3/barrel (ezantsi ukusuka kumndilili we-$103.2/umphanda ngo-2022). I-Jet kerosene kulindeleke ukuba ibe yi-avareji ye-$ 111.9 / umgqomo (ehla ukusuka kwi-$ 138.8 / umgqomo). Oku kuncipha kubonisa uzinzo olunxulumene nonikezelo lwamafutha emva kokuphazamiseka kokuqala kwimfazwe yaseUkraine. Iprimiyamu ehlawuliswa isibaso sejethi (i-crack spread) ihleli ikufuphi nembali ephezulu.

iingozi: Imeko yezoqoqosho kunye neyopolitiko yelizwe iveza imingcipheko emininzi enokubakho kwimbonakalo ka-2023. 

• Ngelixa iimpawu zibonisa ukuba kunokubakho ukuthotywa kokunyuka kwexabiso lemali-mboleko ukunyuka kwesantya senzala ukusuka ekuqaleni kuka-2023, umngcipheko wokuwohloka kwezoqoqosho usahleli. Ukucotha okunjalo kunokuchaphazela imfuno yazo zombini iinkonzo zabakhweli kunye nempahla. Nangona kunjalo, inokuthi ize nonciphiso oluthile ngendlela yamaxabiso e-oyile asezantsi. 

• Imbonakalo ilindele ukuvulwa ngokuthe ngcembe kwe-China kwitrafikhi yamazwe ngamazwe kunye nokucuthwa kwezithintelo zasekhaya ze-COVID-19 ngokuthe ngcembe ukusuka kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2023. Ukwandiswa kwemigaqo-nkqubo yaseTshayina ye-Zero COVID kuya kuyichaphazela kakubi imbonakalo.

• Ukuba zenziwe zabonakala, izindululo zokunyuswa kweentlawulo zeziseko zophuhliso okanye iirhafu zokuxhasa iinzame zozinzo zinokutya ingeniso ngo-2023. 

“Umsebenzi wabaphathi beenqwelomoya uzakuhlala unomngeni njengoko ukujonga ngononophelo ukungaqiniseki kwezoqoqosho kuya kuba balulekileyo. Iindaba ezimnandi zezokuba iinqwelomoya ziye zakha ukuguquguquka kwiimodeli zabo zoshishino ukuze zikwazi ukujongana nokunyuka kwezoqoqosho kunye nokuhla okuchaphazela imfuno. Inzuzo yenkampani yeenqwelomoya incinci kakhulu. Umkhweli ngamnye othwelweyo kulindeleke ukuba afake isandla kumndilili nje we-$1.11 kwingeniso yoshishino. Kwiindawo ezininzi zehlabathi loo nto ingaphantsi kakhulu kunento efunekayo ukuthenga ikomityi yekofu. Iinkampani zeenqwelo moya kufuneka zihlale ziphaphile kuko nakuphi na ukonyuka kweerhafu okanye imirhumo yeziseko zophuhliso. Kwaye kuya kufuneka ukuba silumke ngakumbi abo benziwe egameni lozinzo. Ukuzinikela kwethu kukukhupha izinto ezikhutshwayo zeCO2 ngo-2050. Siza kufuna zonke izibonelelo esinokuzihlanganisa, kubandakanywa inkuthazo karhulumente, ukuxhasa ngemali olu tshintsho lukhulu lwamandla. Iirhafu ezininzi kunye neentlawulo eziphezulu ziya kuba nemveliso echaseneyo, ”utshilo uWalsh.

Ukusondezwa koMmandla

Yonke imimandla yemali iqhubela phambili ukuphucuka ukusukela kubunzulu belahleko yobhubhane ebonwe ngo-2020. UMntla Melika kuphela kwengingqi ebuyela kwinzuzo ngo-2022, ngokusekwe kuqikelelo lwethu. Imimandla emibini iya kujoyina i-North America kule nkalo ngo-2023: iYurophu kunye noMbindi Mpuma, ngelixa i-Latin America, i-Afrika kunye ne-Asia-Pacific iya kuhlala ibomvu.

Abathwali boMntla Melika kulindeleke ukuba ziqonde iingeniso ze-9.9 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2022 kunye ne-11.4 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2023. Ngo-2023, ukukhula kwemfuno yabakhweli nge-6.4% kulindeleke ukuba kudlule ukukhula komthamo we-5.5%. Enyakeni, lo mmandla ulindeleke ukuba unike inkonzo kwi-97.2% yamanqanaba emfuno yaphambi kwentlekele kunye ne-98.9% yesakhono saphambi kwentlekele.

Abathwali kulo mmandla baxhamle kwizithintelo zokuhamba ezimbalwa nezithatha ixesha elifutshane kunamanye amazwe amaninzi kunye nemimandla. Oku konyuse imakethi enkulu yasekhaya yase-US, kunye nohambo lwamazwe ngamazwe, ngakumbi ukuwela iAtlantiki.

Abaphethe iYurophu kulindeleke ukuba ibone ilahleko ye-3.1 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwi-2022, kunye nenzuzo ye-621 yezigidi zeedola ngo-2023. Ngo-2023, ukukhula kweemfuno zabakhweli kwe-8.9% kulindeleke ukuba kudlule ukukhula kwamandla kwe-6.1%. Enyakeni, lo mmandla ulindeleke ukuba uncede ama-88.7% amanqanaba emfuno ephambi kwengxaki kunye nama-89.1% omthamo waphambi kwengxaki.

Imfazwe yaseUkraine iye yanciphisa imisebenzi yabanye abathwali balo mmandla. Ukuphazamiseka kokusebenza kwezinye iindawo zelizwekazi kuyasonjululwa, kodwa udushe lwabasebenzi lusaqhubeka kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo.

Abathwali beAsia-Pacific kulindeleke ukuba ithumele ilahleko ye-10.0 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2022, iyancipha ukuya kwilahleko ye-6.6 yezigidigidi kwi-2023. Ngo-2023, ukukhula kweemfuno zabakhweli kwe-59.8% kulindeleke ukuba kudlule ukukhula kwamandla kwe-47.8%. Enyakeni, lo mmandla ulindeleke ukuba unike i-70.8% yamanqanaba emfuno yaphambi kwentlekele kunye ne-75.5% yomthamo wangaphambili.

I-Asia-Pasifiki ibanjelwe umva ngokubalulekileyo yimpembelelo yemigaqo-nkqubo ye-COVID ye-zero yaseTshayina kuhambo kwaye ilahleko yommandla ithotywa kakhulu kukusebenza kweenqwelomoya zaseTshayina ezijongene nefuthe elipheleleyo lalo mgaqo-nkqubo kwiimarike zasekhaya nezamazwe ngamazwe. Ukuthatha umbono ongqongqo wokuphucula ukuphuculwa kwezithintelo e-China kwisiqingatha sesibini sowama-2023, nangona kunjalo silindele imfuno eyomeleleyo yokufaka ifuthe lokuphindaphinda ngokukhawuleza emva kwazo naziphi na iintshukumo ezinjalo. Ukusebenza kommandla ufumana ukonyuswa okubalulekileyo kwiimarike zempahla yomoya enengeniso, apho ingoyena mdlali mkhulu.

Abathwali boMbindi Mpuma kulindeleke ukuba zithumele ilahleko ye-1.1 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2022, kunye nenzuzo ye-268 yezigidi zeedola ngo-2023. Ngo-2023, ukukhula kweemfuno zabakhweli kwe-23.4% kulindeleke ukuba kudlule ukukhula kwamandla angama-21.2%. Enyakeni, lo mmandla ulindeleke ukuba uncede ama-97.8% amanqanaba emfuno yaphambi kwentlekele kunye nama-94.5% omthamo waphambi kwentlekele.

Ummandla uxhamle kwinqanaba elithile lokuphinda-phinda umzila ngenxa yemfazwe yase-Ukraine, kwaye ngokubaluleke ngakumbi kwimfuno yohambo engekapheli kusetyenziswa uthungelwano olunabileyo lwehlabathi njengoko iimarike zokuhamba zamazwe ngamazwe zivulwa kwakhona.

Abaphethe iLatin American kulindeleke ukuba ithumele ilahleko ye-2.0 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2022, iyancipha ukuya kwi-795 yezigidi zeedola ngo-2023. Ngo-2023, ukukhula kweemfuno zabakhweli kwe-9.3% kulindeleke ukuba kudlule ukukhula komthamo we-6.3%. Enyakeni, lo mmandla ulindeleke ukuba unike inkonzo kwi-95.6% yamanqanaba emfuno yaphambi kwentlekele kunye ne-94.2% yomthamo wangaphambi kwentlekele.

I-Latin America ibonakalise ukonwaba enyakeni, ikakhulu ngenxa yokuba amazwe amaninzi aqala ukuphakamisa izithintelo zokuhamba ze-COVID-19 ukusukela phakathi enyakeni.

Abaphethe iAfrika kulindeleke ukuba zithumele ilahleko ye-638 yezigidi zeedola ngo-2022, iyancipha ukuya kwilahleko ye-213 yezigidi zeedola ngo-2023. Ukukhula kwemfuno yabakhweli nge-27.4% kulindeleke ukuba kudlule ukukhula komthamo we-21.9%. Enyakeni, lo mmandla ulindeleke ukuba unike inkonzo kwi-86.3% yamanqanaba emfuno yaphambi kwentlekele kunye nama-83.9% omthamo waphambi kwentlekele.

I-Afrika ichanabeke ngakumbi kuqoqosho olukhulu oluye lwanyusa ukuba sesichengeni koqoqosho oluninzi kwaye lunike uqhagamshelwano oluntsonkothileyo.

Okukwintsusa

“Ingeniso elindelekileyo ngo-2023 ibhityile. Kodwa kubaluleke kakhulu ukuba sijike ikona kwingeniso. Imiceli mngeni eza kujongana neenqwelomoya ngo-2023, ngelixa inzima, iya kuwela kwiindawo zethu zamava. Ishishini lizakhele isakhono esikhulu sokuhlengahlengisa ukuguquguquka kwezoqoqosho, izinto ezinkulu zeendleko ezifana namaxabiso epetroli, kunye nokukhethwa kwabakhweli. Sibona oku kubonakaliswa kwishumi leminyaka yokomeleza ingeniso kulandela iNgxaki yezeMali yeHlabathi ka-2008 kwaye iphele ngobhubhane. Kwaye okukhuthazayo, mininzi imisebenzi kwaye uninzi lwabantu luzithembile ukuhamba nokuba nembono engaqinisekanga yezoqoqosho, utshilo uWalsh.

Abakhweli basebenzisa ithuba lokubuya kwenkululeko yabo yokuhamba. Uvavanyo lwamva nje lwe-IATA lwabahambi kwiimarike ezili-11 zehlabathi luveze ukuba phantse ama-70% bahamba kakhulu okanye ngaphezulu kunokuba bebesenza ngaphambi kobhubhane. Kwaye, ngelixa imeko yezoqoqosho imalunga ne-85% yabahambi, i-57% ayinanjongo yokuthintela imikhwa yabo yokuhamba.

Uphononongo olufanayo lukwabonise indima ebalulekileyo abahambi abayibonayo ishishini leenqwelomoya lidlala:

• 91% said that connectivity by air is critical to the economy
• 90% said that air travel is a necessity for modern life
• 87% said that air travel has a positive impact on societies, and
• Of the 57% familiar with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), 91% understand that air transport is a key contributor