UNjingalwazi uNorbert Walter, i-economist eyintloko ye-Deutsche Bank Group kunye nentloko ye-Deutsche Bank Research, ukhathazekile ngoku. "Xa amaxesha ebaluleke kakhulu kuqoqosho lwehlabathi, ngaphandle kweRussia, ilizwe alinazo iinkokeli ezithembekileyo. Xa uqoqosho luyingxaki, imiba yezentlalo nemekobume nazo zibangela ingxaki enkulu. Unyamezelo kuzo zonke iindawo zehlabathi lufutshane,” utshilo kwiGlobal Travel and Tourism Summit ebibanjelwe eDubai.
Amazwe amaninzi kwihlabathi jikelele awawahlawuli amaxabiso afanelekileyo emarike ezinto ezinqabileyo ezibangela ukungasebenzi kakuhle kobutyebi, nto leyo enokuphelela kwintlekele yehlabathi.
Ngo-2008 ukuya kuthi ga kunyaka wonke, hayi amandla kuphela kodwa nokutya kuya kubiza kakhulu. Njengomba wentlalontle, amaxabiso okutya aya kunyuka, nto leyo eyandisa uxinezeleko lwentlalo ehlabathini lonke. Kwalo mbandela mnye uza kwenza amazwe ebekade engakhathalelwanga iminyaka emininzi kangaka ajongwe kuba angawona abonelela ngokutya ehlabathini. Ababoneleli bempahla yorhwebo ubhedu, intsimbi, iiminerali ezixabisekileyo, ipulp / iphepha kunye nesoya abayi kuba zizityebi kuphela. Ngapha koko, baya kuba zizityebi kakhulu kwaye baya kuba nesandla esiphezulu kukhenketho lwehlabathi, ngaloo ndlela bebeka umngeni e-US naseYurophu, wongeze watsho uWalter.
UChristopher Dickey, umphathi weofisi yaseParis kunye nomhleli wengingqi ye-Newsweek kuMbindi Mpuma, wachaza iingxaki zamva nje ezibetha iindawo ezithile. Izidubedube zokutya eHaiti kunye nemizila yesonka eCairo, e-Egypt kutshanje ithathe inxaxheba kukhenketho. “Ishishini labakhenkethi kumazwe amaninzi asakhasayo liye lafana nokhenketho lwe-enclave- libeka abakhenkethi ngaphakathi eludongeni apho banokuphumla khona, ngelixa wonke umntu ehlala ngaphandle. Oku kuya kuba nzima ukwenza njengoko sibona ukunqongophala kokutya, amaxabiso ombane kunye nokungazinzi kwezopolitiko kunyuka kumazwe anokuba yindawo efanelekileyo yokhenketho. Ukhenketho kufuneka lujongane nobunkokeli obungalunganga kwihlabathi kwixesha elikufuphi neliphakathi, "watsho, esongeza ukuba isizathu sokuba iinkokeli zecandelo labucala kufuneka ziqaphele kwaye kufuneka zisebenze malunga nengxaki engapheliyo yeenkokeli zezopolitiko ezimbi kwilizwe. ihlabathi.
“Kucacile ukuba i-Asiya iza kuba yintsika yohlumo kule minyaka mihlanu izayo. ILatin America, ekhula namhlanje ngesantya esine-4 ekhulwini inamandla amakhulu okwenza ngcono. Ukuba lo mmandla unokurhweba ngakumbi nangokuvulelekileyo nehlabathi liphela, uya kuba yinkokeli kwezokhenketho,” utshilo uWalter.
Kule minyaka mihlanu izayo, ezinye izinto ezimbalwa zinokwenzeka kwicala elisezantsi. I-US inokubuyela kwimeko yokudodobala koqoqosho kodwa hayi ngokukhawuleza njengoko uninzi lweebhanki zotyalo-mali luqikelela namhlanje. “Eyona nto yokuba i-US ichithe ngaphezulu kuhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwayo iyaqhubeka nokubeka iimarike kwindawo epholileyo. Umbuzo usamile malunga nokuba ilizwe liphela liza kuqhubeka lixhasa inkcitho egqithisileyo ye-US okanye hayi. Kwixesha elidlulileyo, ukongiwa okuvela e-Asia naseYurophu kubambe i-US ngaphandle kokuchitha imali, utshilo uWalter.
Uza kwenza ntoni umgaqo-nkqubo waseMelika kwidola yaseMelika abathi oosoqoqosho sele behla iminyaka emininzi? “Enoba ihlabathi liya kuqhubeka lisamkela imali ethoba ixabiso layo njengemali ebekelwe bucala okanye akunjalo ngumbuzo omkhulu. IDubai kunye neGulf States sele zixoxa ngale miba,” utshilo uWalter echaza ukuba kule minyaka mibini izayo, amazwe amaninzi azakubuza ngexabiso ledola kunye nemali egciniweyo.
Amazwe abonelela nge-oyile kunye negesi namhlanje akonwabanga ukuba ngelixa ekhupha ubutyebi bezimbiwa axabisekileyo kwaye asasazeke kwihlabathi, afumana imali ephulukene nexabiso ngobusuku nje obunye. UWalter wayeqinile malunga nomongameli wase-Iranian ecinga ngokuchaza ukuthunyelwa kweoli kwamanye amazwe kwezinye iimali ukuze abalekele isilayidi sedola. Abatyali-zimali kunye nabantu ngabanye baya kuhlukanisa ipotifoliyo yabo yotyalo-mali ukusuka kwidola ukuya kolunye utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle.
Nangona kunjalo, eli ayiloxesha elinje xa idola yathatha i-pound sterling. Eli asiloxesha lokuba enye imali ithathe enye. Kuya kubakho iminyaka emibini ngaphezulu kwidola ephantsi ngaphambi kokuba ibuye. I-US, ekubeni luqoqosho olubalulekileyo, iya kubuya ngenxa yobuninzi beetalente ezincinci kunye nemfundo efanelekileyo. Idola ayizukuphuma kwifashoni, utshilo.
Ukusukela namhlanje ukuya ku-2010/2011, ingeniso kunye notyalo-mali olusebenza ngedola yaseMelika lusemngciphekweni. Imida ayiphezulu ngokwaneleyo ukuba ingamelana nokuguquguquka kwemarike okuphawulwa ngeendleko eziphezulu zokutya namandla. Ishishini lokhenketho lanamhlanje linokujongana nabantu abadala abahlwempuzeka ngakumbi ngemini kunye nesizukulwana esitsha esivumayo ukuhamba kwaye sinokuba nayo imali.
UWalter uthe ishishini lezokhenketho namhlanje kufuneka licinge malunga neenjineli eziqeqeshwe ngakumbi eziya kusebenzisa izixhobo ngobulumko kwaye zilondoloze amandla kunye nokusingqongileyo. "Ngokomzekelo eYurophu, abantu bafuna ukuseka isikhokelo solawulo lwendalo esingqongileyo. Ilizwe elinye alibonakali lenza njalo-i-US. Kodwa ukuba singathanda ukwazi ukuba silindele ntoni, kufuneka sijonge kuphela into eza kwenzeka e-US. Nabani na oba ngumongameli, i-US ngokuqinisekileyo iya kuba lilizwe elahlukileyo ngokwembono yemicimbi yokusingqongileyo. I-US kungekudala iza kukhokela indlela eya ekubekeni iliso kutshintsho lwemozulu, ”utshilo uWalter.
Qaphela wongezelela, ayisayi kuba yiYurophu okanye ilizwe elinye elenza utshintsho; iya kuba namandla enye ekhokelwa yi-US xa iyonke yenza impembelelo kwiikhowudi zokwakha, ukugquma, ukufakela, ukuphuhlisa uyilo lweenjini, ukucacisa i-carbon-trading kunye nemimiselo yokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni ebalulekileyo kwiindleko, utshilo uWalter.
Imiqobo ivela njengoko ixhalabisa ukukhula kwe-Asiya. Ngokomzekelo, e-China, inkxalabo yokusingqongileyo iya kuba kakhulu ngakumbi xa kuziwa kwimigaqo-nkqubo yendawo (umoya wendawo, amanzi kunye nomhlaba), nangona kungekuko ukutshintsha kwemozulu yehlabathi. Amazwe akufuphi neTshayina afana neVietnam kunye namazwe afana neBrazil aya kujongana neemeko ezifanelekileyo zentengiso ngenxa yokusingatha imiba yokusingqongileyo.
Ngezizwe ze-37 ezijongene nemingeni ekuzinzeni namhlanje xa kuziwa kukutya kunye namandla, umcimbi okhawulezayo (obaluleke ngakumbi kunokutshintsha kwemozulu) yintlupheko apho ukuhamba kunye nokhenketho kunempembelelo kuluntu lwasekuhlaleni. U-Edouard Ettedgui, intloko yeqela, iMandarin Oriental Hotel Group uthe: “Njengeshishini eliqhekekileyo elinabadlali abaninzi abancinci, ucebisa ukuba ukhenketho luqale ngokusebenzisana noorhulumente. Iindawo zokutyela ezincinci kunye nabaqhubi abancinci kufuneka basebenze noluntu lwasekhaya kwaye kufuneka bahlangane ukuze bathethe noorhulumente besixeko abanombono ocacileyo, ogxile ngakumbi kuneendawo ezinkulu ezifana nemimandla okanye amaphondo. ”
Ngeli xesha, ababoneleli ngezinto eziluncedo eMzantsi Afrika bathetha ngokuncitshiswa kombane kule minyaka mihlanu izayo. Ethetha ngale ngxaki ingamandla, usihlalo wezoKhenketho eMzantsi Afrika kunye nengqonyela yeqela iTsogo Sun Holdings, uJabu Mabuza, uthe benze ukhetho kweli lizwe ukuze baqhubele phambili ukukhula koqoqosho kule minyaka mi-5-7 idlulileyo kwinani elikhulu labemi.
“Xa kuthwaxwa iziseko ezingundoqo, izindlu ezi-4 zezigidi ezitsha zangeniswa kuthungelwano lombane okuzisa uxinzelelo olukhulu kubonelelo lombane. Asazi ngoku ukuba singayichaza njani loo ngxaki. Inkonzo yethu yamandla ibophelele i-euro ye-8.4 yeebhiliyoni ukujongana nale ngxaki ngokubiza ishishini kunye noluntu ngokubanzi ukuba lujonge ezinye iindlela zokonga amandla kunye nokuvelisa ukufudumeza, ngaphandle kokuthembela kumbane ococekileyo. Le yingqwalasela karhulumente wethu, echonge ukhenketho njengomqhubi wohlumo kunye negalelo elibonakalayo kwi-GDP. Kule minyaka mihlanu idlulileyo, kufike abakhenkethi abazizigidi ezingama-43. Ukhenketho luya kuzama ukunciphisa imingeni yethu; kwaye uxinzelelo kwinkqubo luxhomekeke kumandla ekufuneka sivelise ngaphezulu kwaye silondoloze. "
Nangona amaxesha ekhangeleka enzima ngaphambili, ukhenketho lunokunceda ukunciphisa iintlungu ezikhulayo. Iimarike ezikhulayo zikwathatha indawo esembindini njengoko zimi ukubonelela ihlabathi ngezinto ezifuneka kakhulu. Njengoko ingcali yezoqoqosho itshilo, baya kuba zizityebi kakhulu.
