I-GENEVA, eSwitzerland - I-International Air Transport Association (IATA) ibhengeze ukuphuculwa okuthobekileyo kwimbono yayo ye-2013 yokusebenza kwemali kwishishini le-airline yehlabathi ngokuyinhloko ngokusekelwe kwiingeniso ezinamandla. I-IATA ngoku ilindele ukuba iinkampani zeenqwelo moya zivelise umda odityanisiweyo wenzuzo emva kwerhafu ye-1.6% (ukusuka kuqikelelo lwangaphambili lwe-1.3%) kunye nengeniso yerhafu emva kwe-10.6 yeebhiliyoni zeedola (ukusuka kwi-8.4 yezigidigidi zeedola).
“Ingeniso yeshishini ithatha inyathelo elincinci kwicala elifanelekileyo. Ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yethemba eliphuculweyo lethemba loqoqosho lwehlabathi imfuno yabakhweli ibe yomelele kwaye iimarike zempahla ziqala ukukhula kwakhona. Ithemba loqoqosho likwanyusa amaxabiso epetroli. Sibona i-12 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi eziphuculweyo kwingeniso, kunye ne-$ 9-10 yeebhiliyoni zokunyuka kwiindleko-ininzi yazo ihambelana namafutha, "kusho uTony Tyler, uMlawuli Jikelele we-IATA kunye ne-CEO.
Ukuzithemba kwishishini leenqwelomoya kuyenyuka malunga nezinto ezininzi:
Uqikelelo lokukhula kwe-GDP yowama-2013 luphuculwe lwaya kutsho kwi-2.4%, impucuko ebonakalayo ukusuka kwi-2.1% ngowama-2012.
Kubonakala ngathi ezantsi kumjikelo wemveliso yehlabathi jikelele kwafikelelwa kwikota yesithathu ka-2012 emva koko kuye kwakho iinyanga ezintandathu zokunyuka kwemveliso kunye nokuphuculwa kokuzithemba kweshishini.
Kukho ukuphucuka kolwakhiwo kwindlela yokusebenza kwemali yeshishini leenqwelomoya njengoko kuqatshelwe ngokunyuka kwe-7% kumaxabiso ezabelo ukususela ekuqaleni konyaka, ngaphandle kokunyuka kwe-5% kwiindleko zamafutha.
Imingcipheko kunye nokuguquguquka
I-IATA iqaphele ukuba kusekho imingcipheko emininzi enokuthi iphazamise ukuchacha. Imbonakalo isekelwe kubungqina bokukhula kokuzithemba kweshishini. Kodwa ingxabano malunga nesiphakamiso se-bailout ye-draconian kumaziko emali aseCypriot luphawu olucacileyo lokuba ingxaki ye-Eurozone ayipheli kwaye inokuthatha inguquko.
"Izibophelelo zeBhanki Embindi yaseYurophu ngokubhekiselele kwintlekele ye-Eurozone kunye nokuchaneka okucothayo koqoqosho e-US kufanele ukuba kusikhombe kwindawo ehlala ixesha elide, ukuba ibuthathaka, ukunyuka. Kodwa sele sineziqalo zobuxoki ezimbini. Ukuphucula iimeko ekuqaleni kwe-2011 kunye ne-2012 yahlukana njengoko ingxaki ye-Eurozone yanda. Kwaye ingenzeka kwakhona. Impembelelo yemeko eqhubekayo eCyprus yinto enobungozi obungenakuhoywa, "utshilo uTyler.
Iimbalasane zeForecast
Ingeniso eyomeleleyo: Ingeniso eyomeleleyo (i-671 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, i-12 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukusuka kwimbono kaDisemba) ngoyena mqhubi wentsebenzo yemali ephuculwe kancinci. Imfuno yomthwalo ilindeleke ukuba ikhule nge-2.7% (ukubuyisela umva umzila oyehlayo weminyaka emibini edlulileyo) kwaye izivuno zomthwalo zilindeleke ukuba zibe tyaba (ukuphuculwa kwe-1.5% yokwehla bekuqikelelwe ngaphambili). Imfuno yabakhweli iqikelelwa ukuba iza kukhula nge-5.4% (inyuke ukusuka kwi-4.5% ebilindelwe ngaphambili) kwaye isivuno kulindeleke ukuba sikhule nge-0.4% (kunokuba i-0.2% yehle ngaphambili ebilindelwe).
Iindleko: Iindleko zamafutha ziyenyuka. I-fuel jet ngoku ilindeleke ukuba ibe yi-avareji ye-$ 130 / umgqomo wonyaka (ukusuka kwi-$ 124.3 / umgqomo oqikelelweyo ngoDisemba). Kwaye i-bill bill iya kukhula ibe yi-216 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, ukunyuka kwe-6 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngaphezu kokulindela kukaDisemba. Ngokubanzi, amafutha ayakubalelwa kwi-33% yeendleko zeenqwelo-moya, ezingatshintshanga ukusuka ku-2012.
Ukuqukuqela kwemali: Ukuqukuqela kwemali yenkampani yeenqwelomoya kubonisa ukusebenza ngcono kunoko bekulindelwe xa kujongwa iindleko eziphezulu kunye nokukhula okungenamandla. Oku kodwa kuyahluka ngokwengingqi kunye nobukhulu benqwelomoya. Abathwali abakhulu baseAsia babone ukuphuculwa okukhulu.
Isimo e-US sithe tyaba kodwa sithelekiseka namanqanaba angaphambi kokudodobala koqoqosho, ngelixa iinqwelomoya zaseYurophu zisokola nokudodobala koqoqosho.
Ukusebenza kakuhle: Uthelekiso lweemeko ze-2013 kunye nenzuzo elindelekileyo kwezo ze-2006 zityhila iinzuzo ezibalulekileyo ekusebenzeni kakuhle. Umda wokusebenza komyinge woshishino kuyo yomibini le minyaka wawufana (3.2% ngo-2006 kunye ne-3.3% ilindeleke ngo-2013) kodwa iimeko ngo-2013 zinzima kakhulu:
Ngo-2006 ukukhula kweGDP bekuyi-4.0%, ngaphezulu kwe-2.4% ebilindelwe kulo nyaka.
Ngo-2006 ixabiso lomphanda we-Brent crude yayiyi-$65.1, ngaphantsi kwe-109.5 yeedola ekulindeleke kulo nyaka.
Ukudityaniswa kweemalike zasekhaya kunye namashishini adibeneyo kwezinye iindlela ezihamba ixesha elide ibe yimiba ephambili ekuveliseni iinzuzo ezifanelekileyo zokuxhasa ukusebenza kwemali. Oku kubonakaliswa kukunyuka komthwalo osuka kuma-76.1% ngowama-2006 ukuya kuma-79.8% okulindelekileyo ngowama-2013.
Imbonakalo yommandla
Iinqwelomoya zaseAsia-Pacific kulindeleke ukuba zinikeze elona galelo likhulu lipheleleyo ekusebenzeni kweshishini ngengeniso eyi-4.2 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi elindelekileyo ngo-2013 (isuka kwi-3.2 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ebiqikelelwe ngaphambili kwaye isuka kwi-3.9 yeebhiliyoni ezixelwe ngo-2012). Abathwali baseAsia baquka malunga ne-40% yemarike yempahla yomoya kwaye baya kuba ngabaxhamli abakhulu bokunyuka okulindelekileyo kwimfuno yomthwalo. Abathwali kulo mmandla kulindeleke ukuba babone ukukhula kwemfuno okuphakathi kwe-4.9%, kugqithiswe kancinci nge-5.0% yokwandiswa kwamandla.
Iinqwelomoya zaseMntla Melika kulindeleke ukuba zinike ingxelo yengeniso eyi-3.6 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi. Oku kungaphambili kancinane kwi-3.4 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ebiqikelelwe ngaphambili kunye nengeniso eyi-2.3 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ebixelwe ngo-2012. Lo mmandla yimarike evuthiweyo (ingakumbi kwimisebenzi yasekhaya). Ulawulo oluluqilima lomthamo ekuphenduleni imekobume yexabiso eliphezulu lamafutha luya kubona ukwanda kwe-1.3% kwimfuno ekhokelela ekwandisweni kwe-1.1%.
Abathwali baseYurophu kulindeleke ukuba banike ingxelo ye-800 yezigidi zeerandi inzuzo. Olu luphuculo kwintsebenzo ebiqikelelwe ngaphambili kunye nengeniso yezigidi ezingama-300 zeerandi ngo-2012, kodwa kuphela nge-0.4% yengeniso eyahluke ngokuncinane kwi-breakeven. Kwaye yimarike eya kuchaphazeleka kakhulu kukungazinzi okubangelwa yintlekele ye-Eurozone. Imarike yasekhaya yaseYurophu iyaqhubeka nokuba buthathaka, ibonisa iimeko zokudodobala kwezoqoqosho kwilizwekazi liphela. Nangona kunjalo, iinqwelomoya kulindeleke ukuba zibonise ukusebenza okunamandla kwiindlela ezithatha ixesha elide ukuya kwiimarike ezivelayo. Imfuno epheleleyo yabathwali baseYurophu kulindeleke ukuba ikhule nge-2.6% ehambelana nokwandiswa komthamo we-2.5%.
Iinqwelomoya zaseMbindi Mpuma kulindeleke ukuba zithumele inzuzo ye-1.4 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Oku kunyuka kancinane kwi-1.1 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngaphambili kwaye kunamandla kunenzuzo ye-900 yezigidi zeedola ezirekhodwe ngo-2012. Indima ekhulayo yeenqwelo-moya zommandla ekuboneleleni uxhulumaniso kwiimarike eziphuhlayo ibonakala ekukhuleni okunamandla kwezithuthi. Iinqwelomoya zommandla kulindeleke ukuba zongeze i-12.8% kwisikhundla kwi-2013 kwaye oku kuya kudlula ngokukhula kwemfuno ye-13.7%. Abathwali bommandla bathatha indawo yesithathu malunga nenzuzo yokusebenza kunye ne-Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) umda we-3.4%, emva kwe-Asia-Pacific (5.3%) kunye noMntla Melika (4.1%).
Iinkampani zeenqwelo moya zaseLatin America ziya kuthumela ingeniso eyi-600 yezigidi zeerandi. Nguwo kuphela ummandla ongabona ukwehla (i-100 yezigidi zeedola) xa kuthelekiswa noqikelelo lukaDisemba. Oku, nangona kunjalo, kuya kubonisa inzuzo ephindwe kabini xa kuthelekiswa no-2012. Nangona kunjalo, ummandla uya kubona ukukhula kwesibini okuphezulu kwimfuno (8.1%) kwaye iya kuba yipesenti ye-1.4 yeepesenti ngaphambi kokwandiswa kwamandla okulindelekileyo.
Iinqwelomoya zase-Afrika kulindeleke ukuba zithumele inzuzo ye-100 yezigidi zeedola ngo-2013. Oko kuphambi kwekhefu nokusebenza kwangaphambili kunye nelahleko yezigidi ezili-100 zeedola ngo-2012. Ukwandiswa kwe-6.5% kwisikhundla. Ilizwekazi liyaqhubeleka ukuba yindawo ekugxilwe kuyo ukukhula kwabo bathwali bakuloo ngingqi kunye nabo babonelela ngeenkonzo kulo mmandla. Ukhuphiswano phakathi kwezi zibini luhlala luvutha.
Ukuya phambili
“Uphuculo kwingeniso yeshishini luyakhuthaza. Kodwa zimele zigcinwe zilungile. Siqikelela ukuba iinqwelomoya ziya kwenza inzuzo eyi-10.6 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwiidola ezingama-671 eebhiliyoni kwingeniso yeshishini. Xa kuthelekiswa kunyaka ophelileyo iNestle, inkampani enye, yenze ngaphezulu kwe-11.5 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwingeniso kwingeniso emalunga ne-100 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Ingeniso ye-anemic engapheliyo luphawu kuninzi lwekhonkco lexabiso lokuhamba ngenqwelomoya xa kuthelekiswa namanye amacandelo. Kuya kufuna okungaphezulu kunokuphucula iimeko zoqoqosho ukulungisa. Nemiceli mngeni okanye izibonelelo zokwenza oko kufuneka zijongelwe phantsi,” utshilo uTyler.
Iinqwelomoya zikhuthaza ukukhula koqoqosho nophuhliso oluxhasa imisebenzi emalunga nezigidi ezingama-57 kunye ne-2.2 yeetriliyoni zeerandi kwimisebenzi yezoqoqosho.
“Ekuphela kwendlela yokuphuma kobobunzima bezoqoqosho esibubona kwihlabathi liphela kukukhula. Iinqwelomoya zidlala indima ebalulekileyo, zibonelela ngoqhagamshelwano oluvuselela ishishini kunye nokuhambisa iimveliso kwiimarike zehlabathi. Kodwa singakwenza oku kuphela ukuba ishishini livelisa imbuyekezo ezinzileyo, utshilo uTyler.
“Inkangeleko ephuculweyo nangona imeko yokusebenza inzima ibonisa impumelelo kunye nophuculo oluphunyeziweyo njengoko ishishini liye lazihlaziya kwakhona kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo. Kodwa amaxesha amaninzi oorhulumente basiphosela iibhola ezigoso. Kwiiveki ezidlulileyo siye saba nezikhumbuzo ezingathandekiyo. IYurophu ibhengeze izindululo zomthetho wamalungelo abakhweli oza kongeza iindleko zokuhamba ngenqwelomoya, kodwa ngenzuzo encinci okanye engabikho ixesha elide kubathengi. Ukuhluthwa kohlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwase-US kuya kubona ukucuthwa kulawulo lwezithuthi zomoya, ukhuseleko kunye nolawulo lwemida olunokuthi lubize kakhulu ngokwezoqoqosho kunenzuzo yogcino lweendleko oluphunyeziweyo. Kwaye i-UK's Air Passenger Duty-yeyona rhafu iphakamileyo yokubhabha emhlabeni-iya kuphinda inyuke nge-1 ka-Epreli. Iinkampani zeenqwelomoya azifuni unyango olukhethekileyo, kodwa zifuna inkqubo-sikhokelo yomgaqo-nkqubo odibeneyo obenza ukuba bahlangabezane neemfuno ezikhulayo zoqhagamshelwano ngokuzinzileyo. Ngomda wengeniso eyi-1.6%, sincinci kakhulu isithinteli phakathi kwenzuzo nelahleko,” utshilo uTyler.
INTO ONOKUYITHATHA KWELI NQAKU:
- There is a structural improvement in the airline industry's financial performance as recognized by a 7% increase in share prices since the beginning of the year, despite a 5% increase in fuel costs.
- But the controversy over the draconian bailout proposal for Cypriot financial institutions is a clear indicator that the Eurozone crisis is not over and could take a turn for the worse.
- We are seeing a $12 billion improvement in revenue, and a $9-10 billion increase in costs—most of which is related to fuel,” said Tony Tyler, IATA's Director General and CEO.
