The Umbutho wamazwe ngamazwe oThutho loMoya (IATA) ubhengeze umbono ohlaziyiweyo wokusebenza kweshishini leenqwelo moya ngo-2020 nango-2021. Ilahleko ezinzulu zeshishini ziya kuqhubeka zibe ngowama-2021, nangona ukusebenza kulindeleke ukuba kuphuhle kwixesha eliqikelelweyo.
- Ukulahleka kwemali eyi-118.5 yezigidigidi kulindeleke ukuba i-2020 (inzulu kune-84.3 yezigidigidi zeerandi ngoJuni).
- Ukulahleka kwemali eyi-38.7 yezigidigidi zeedola kulindeleke ngo-2021 (kungaphezulu kwe-15.8 yezigidigidi zeerandi ngoJuni).
Izinto ezenziweyo ngo-2021 ziya kubonisa ukuphuculwa kwe-2020; kwaye isiqingatha sesibini se-2021 kulindeleke ukuba sibone uphuculo emva kwesiqingatha sokuqala se-2021 esinzima. Ukunciphisa iindleko ngendlela enobundlobongela kulindeleke ukuba kudityaniswe nemfuno eyandisiweyo ngo-2021 (ngenxa yokuvulwa kwakhona kwemida ngovavanyo kunye / okanye ukufumaneka okubanzi kwesitofu sokugonya) ukubona ishishini lijika imali-kwikota yesine ka-2021 ethi ngaphambi kwengqikelelo yangaphambili.
“Le ntlekele iyatshabalalisa kwaye ayinakuphela. Iinqwelo-moya ziye zanciphisa iindleko nge-45.8%, kodwa ingeniso iphantsi ngama-60.9%. Isiphumo kukuba iinqwelomoya ziya kuphulukana ne-66 yeedola kubo bonke abakhweli abathwelwe kulo nyaka ngelahleko iyonke yeedola ezili-118.5 yezigidi. Le lahleko iyakuncitshiswa kabukhali nge-80 yezigidigidi zeedola ngo-2021. Kodwa ithemba lokuphulukana ne- $ 38.7 yezigidigidi kunyaka ozayo ayiyonto yokubhiyozela. Kufuneka sivule imida ngokukhuselekileyo ngaphandle kokuvalelwa ukuze abantu baphinde babhabhe. Kwaye ngeenqwelomoya beenqwelomoya ekulindeleke ukuba zophise imali ubuncinci kude kube yikota yesine ka-2021 akukho xesha lilahlekileyo, utshilo u-Alexandre de Juniac, uMlawuli Jikelele we-IATA kunye ne-CEO.
2020
Ingxaki ye-COVID-19 icel'umngeni kumzi-mveliso ngokuphila kwayo ngo-2020. Phambi kwesiqingatha se-trillion-dollar ukwehla kwengeniso (ukusuka kwi-838 yezigidigidi ngo-2019 ukuya kwi-328 yezigidigidi zeedola) iinqwelo-moya zinciphisa iindleko nge-365 yezigidigidi zeedola (ukusuka kwi-795 yezigidigidi ngo-2019 ukuya kwi-430 yeedola yezigidigidi ngo-2020).
"Iincwadi zembali ziya kubhala u-2020 njengowona nyaka-mali umbi kushishino, ngaphandle kwento yonke. Iinqwelomoya zinciphisa iindleko nge-avareji yezigidigidi zeedola ngemini ngaphezulu kwe-2020 kwaye ziya kuhlala zisenza ilahleko engazange ibonwe. Ukuba ibingekho i-173 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi yenkxaso-mali ngoorhulumente ngesibone ukubhengezwa njengongenamali kakhulu, ”utshilo u-de Juniac.
Zonke iiparameter eziphambili zokusebenza kwi ishishini labakhweli zazingalunganga:
- Amanani abakhweli kulindeleke ukuba yehle iye kwi-1.8 yezigidigidi (60.5% yehle kubagibeli abayi-4.5 yezigidigidi ngo-2019). Eli linani elimalunga neli shishini elalithwala ngo-2003.
- Ingeniso yabakhweli kulindeleke ukuba zehle ziye kwi-191 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi, ngaphantsi kwesithathu se-612 yezigidigidi ezifunyenwe ngo-2019. Iimarike zamanye amazwe zibethwe ngokungalinganiyo nzima nge-66% yokuwa kwemfuno. Iimarike zasekhaya, ikakhulu eziqhutywa kukufumana kwakhona e-China nase-Russia, kulindeleke ukuba zenze ngcono kwaye ziphele ngo-75 2020% ngaphantsi kwamanqanaba e-49.
- Obunye ubuthathaka bubonakaliswa ngu isivuno sabakhweli ezilindeleke ukuba zibe phantsi nge-8% xa kuthelekiswa ne-2019 kwaye zibuthathaka umthwalo womkhweli ekulindeleke ukuba ibe yi-65.5%, yehle ukusuka kuma-82.5% abhalwe ngo-2019, inqanaba lokugqibela ukubonwa ngo-1993.
Iiparamitha zokusebenza ze umthwalo baqhuba ngokungcono kakhulu kunabakhweli kodwa basadandathekile xa kuthelekiswa no-2019:
- Ukuphakanyiswa kulindeleke ukuba ibe ziitoni ezizizigidi ezingama-54.2 ngo-2019, zehle zisuka kwizigidi ezingama-61.3 ngonyaka
- Ingeniso yeCargo batyhalela phambili lo mkhwa, bonyuka ukuya kwi-117.7 yezigidigidi ngo-2020 ukusuka kwi-102.4 yezigidigidi ngo-2019. Ukuwa kweepesenti ezingama-45 kumthamo uwonke, kuqhutywa ikakhulu kukuwa okungathethekiyo komkhweli othathe umthwalo wesisu obalulekileyo (-24%), utyhalelwe isivuno inyuke ngama-30% ngo-2020.
“Imithwalo isebenza ngcono kuneshishini labakhweli. Ayinakho, nangona kunjalo, yenzele ukuwa kwengeniso yabahambi. Kodwa iye yaba yinxalenye enkulu kakhulu yengeniso yeenqwelo moya kunye nengeniso yemithwalo yempahla eyenza ukuba kube lula ukuba iinqwelomoya zikwazi ukugcina uthungelwano lwamathambo lwamazwe aphesheya, utshilo u-de Juniac.
Kwi-2019 imithwalo ibalelwa kwi-12% yengeniso kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ikhule iye kuma-36% ngo-2020.
2021
Ukusebenza kwemali yenqwelomoya kulindelwe ukuba kubonakale utshintsho olukhulu ngo-2021, nokuba ilahleko enzulu ibikhona. Ilahleko elilindelweyo ye-38.7 yezigidigidi kwi-2021 iya kuba yeyesibini kuphela ekusebenzeni kwe-2020.
Kwingcinga yokuba kukho ukuvulwa kwemida phakathi ku-2021 (nokuba kuvavanyo okanye ukukhula kokufumaneka kwesitofu sokugonya), ingeniso iyonke kulindeleke ukuba ikhule iye kwi-459 yezigidigidi ($ 131 yezigidigidi yokuphucula ngo-2020, kodwa i-45% isezantsi kwe-838 yezigidigidi zeedola iphumelele ngo-2019). Xa kuthelekiswa, iindleko kulindeleke ukuba zikhuphuke nge- $ 61 yezigidigidi, ukuhambisa ukuphuculwa kokusebenza kwemali. Iinqwelo-moya zisaza kuphulukana, nangona kunjalo, i-13.78 yeedola kumgibeli ngamnye ohanjisiweyo. Ukuphela konyaka wama-2021 ingeniso ethe kratya iya kuyiphucula imeko, kodwa isiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka olandelayo sisajongeka sicelomngeni omkhulu.
Inani labakhweli kulindeleke ukuba likhule liye kwi-2.8 yezigidigidi ngo-2021. Oko kungangabahambi abangaphezulu kweebhiliyoni kunango-2020, kodwa ngabahambi abakwi-1.7 bhiliyoni abafutshane nokusebenza kuka-2019. Isivuno sabakhweli kulindeleke ukuba sibengathi tyaba kwaye umthwalo kulindeleke ukuba uphucule ukuya kuma-72.7% (uphuculo kuma-65.5% alindelwe ngowama-2020, kodwa kungaphantsi nje kwama-82.5% aphunyezwe ngo-2019).
Icala lempahla yeshishini kulindeleke ukuba liqhubeke nokusebenza ngamandla. Ukuzithemba okuphuculweyo kweshishini kunye nendima ebalulekileyo ekufuneka idlalwe yimithwalo yomoya ekusasazeni isitofu kulindeleke ukuba ibone imithwalo ikhula iye kwi-61.2 yezigidi zeetoni (ukusuka kwiitoni ezingama-54.2 ezigidi ngo-2020 kwaye ngokuhambelana ne-61.3 yezigidi zeetoni ezithwelwe ngo-2019). Ukuqhubekeka kwamandla ngenxa yokuvuselelwa kancinci kwesisu esisuka kwiinkonzo zabakhweli kudityaniswe nenani eliphezulu lexesha kunye nobushushu kwimithwalo (izitofu) iya kubona ukonyuka kwesi-5% sesivuno. Oku kuza kuba negalelo kwintsebenzo eyomeleleyo kwingeniso yemithwalo ekulindeleke ukuba ikhule ibe yimbali ephezulu ye-139.8 yezigidigidi.
Imiceli mngeni ekubuyiseni
Ngelixa eli shishini liza kubona ukusebenza okuphuculweyo kwi-2021 xa kuthelekiswa ne-2020, indlela yokubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo kulindeleke ukuba inde kwaye inzima. Umthamo wabahambi awulindelanga ukuba ubuyele kumanqanaba e-2019 kude kube ngu-2024 kwangoko, ngeemarike zasekhaya ezibuyela umva ngokukhawuleza kuneenkonzo zamanye amazwe. Imiceli mngeni emininzi efuna ingqwalaselo engxamisekileyo:
Amanqanaba eTyala kunye neNkxaso yeMali: Iinqwelo-moya zisinda kwinkxaso yobomi bemali evela koorhulumente. Kwanasemva kokuba i-173 yezigidigidi yenkxaso-mali kurhulumente yeentlobo ezahlukeneyo ngo-2020, i-airline ye-median ineenyanga nje eziyi-8.5 zemali ukuze iphile. Uninzi lunokuncipha kakhulu njengoko ishishini lingena kwixesha elibalulekileyo lobusika, elibonakaliswa yimfuno ebuthathaka nakumaxesha aqhelekileyo. Ngelixa ukutsha kwemali kuye kwancipha kwincopho yentlekele, iinqwelomoya kusalindeleke ukuba zitshise i-avareji ye- $ 6.8 yezigidigidi / ngenyanga ngehafu yokuqala ka-2021, ngaphambi kokuba ishishini litshintshe imali kwikota yesine ka-2021.
“Umonakalo wemali wale ntlekele mkhulu. Inkxaso kaRhulumente igcine iinqwelomoya ziphila ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. Okuninzi okunokwenzeka kuyafuneka njengoko ingxaki ihlala ixesha elide kunokuba nabani na ebenokulindela. Kwaye kufuneka ize kwiifom ezinganyusiyo ityala esele liphezulu esele lifike kwi-651 yezigidigidi zeedola. Ukuvala iinqwelomoya ukuze kubuyiswe yenye yezona mali zibalulekileyo ezinokwenziwa ngoorhulumente. Izakusindisa imisebenzi kwaye iqalise ukubuyisela imeko kwicandelo lezokhenketho nelithatha i-10% ye-GDP yehlabathi, ”utshilo u-de Juniac.
Imida evaliweyo / ukuQiniseka: Ezona zinto ziphambili ekuphazanyiseni ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo kolu shishino zizithintelo zohambo kunye nemilinganiselo yokuvalelwa yedwa ethintela ngokufanelekileyo ukuvuselelwa okunentsingiselo kokuhamba. Esona sisombululo sikhawulezileyo nesibalulekileyo kukuvulwa kwakhona kwemida ngokukhuselekileyo kusetyenziswa uvavanyo lwe-COVID-19 olucwangcisiweyo. Ixesha elide, ukufumaneka okubanzi kogonyo lwe-COVID-19 kufanele ukuba kuncede imida ukuba ihlale ivulekile ngaphandle kovavanyo okanye ukuthintelwa, kodwa ixesha lokufumaneka kokugonya aluqinisekanga.
“Sinako ukuluvula ngokukhuselekileyo uhambo ngokuhlola okucwangcisiweyo. Asinakulinda kwisithembiso sokugonya. Silungiselela ukuhanjiswa okufanelekileyo kokugonya. Kodwa ukuvavanywa sisisombululo esikhawulezileyo sokuvula kwakhona ukuhamba komoya okunentsingiselo. Ngemisebenzi ezizigidi ezingama-46 ezisemngciphekweni kwicandelo lezokhenketho nezokhenketho kuphela ngenxa yokwehla kohambo lomoya, kufuneka sisebenze ngokukhawuleza ngezisombululo ezisemnyango. Sinovavanyo olukhawulezayo, oluchanekileyo nolunokonakala olunokwenza umsebenzi ngokukhuselekileyo. Iinqwelo-moya zilungile. Ubomi bezigidi busezandleni zoorhulumente nabasemagunyeni kwezempilo. Oorhulumente bakuqonda ukubaluleka kwecandelo lezothutho lomoya xa batyale amawaka ezigidi ukuligcina lisebenza. Ngoku kufuneka bakhusele olu tyalomali ngokunika iinqwelomoya iindlela zokwenza ushishino ngokukhuselekileyo, utshilo u-de Juniac.
ukuzithemba
“Amanani awanakuba mandundu ngakumbi. Kodwa kukho indlela eya phambili. Ngenkxaso eqhubekayo yezemali yoorhulumente ukugcina iinkampani zeenqwelo moya zisasebenza kwaye nokusetyenziswa kovavanyo ukwenza ukuhamba ngaphandle kokuvalelwa, sinesicwangciso sokoyisa esona sibi kwangoko. Kwaye ixesha elide inkqubela kwizitofu iyakhuthaza. Okona kubaluleke kakhulu, abantu abalahlanga umnqweno wabo wokuhamba. Impendulo yentengiso nakwimilinganiselo emincinci yokuphakamisa ukuvalelwa ngokukhawuleza kwaye yomelele. Apho izithintelo zisuswe khona, ukuhamba kuye kwavela kwakhona. Ukunxanelwa inkululeko yokubhabha akuzange koyiswe yile ngxaki. Kukho izizathu zokuba nethemba xa oorhulumente basebenzisa uvavanyo ukuvula imida. Kwaye kufuneka sikwenze oko ngokukhawuleza, utshilo u-de Juniac.
Isishwankathelo seNgingqi
Ngelixa yonke imimandla ichaphazeleka yingxaki, ezo moya zinentengiso enkulu yasekhaya okanye zinomsebenzi omkhulu wempahla ziqhuba ngcono. Umahluko phakathi kwemimandla ubaxwa ngakumbi ngo-2021 kunye neAsia Pacific kunye nabathwali boMntla Melika bebona ezona zinciphiso zibalulekileyo kwiilahleko ezilindelekileyo.
| Ummandla | Ibango le-2020 vs 2019 | 2020 amandla vs 2019 | Inzuzo ye2020 | Isibambiso se2021 vs 2020 (vs 2019) | I-2021 yesikhundla vs 2020 (vs 2019) | Inzuzo ye2021 |
| ihlabathi | -66.3% | -57.6% | Ixabiso: $ 118.5b | + 50.4% (-50%) | + 35.5% (-43%) | Ixabiso: $ 38.7b |
| amantla Emelika | -66.0% | -51.6% | Ixabiso: $ 45.8b | + 60.5% (-45%) | + 36.4% (-34%) | Ixabiso: $ 11.0b |
| Iinqwelo-moya zaseMntla Melika ziyaxhamla ekuvuseleleni kwangaphambili kwimarike yasekhaya yaseMelika (eyona ntengiso inkulu yasekhaya emhlabeni) kwaye sele ihlengahlengise ngakumbi kuneminye imimandla exhase ukusebenza kwemali ngaphambili kwengxaki. | ||||||
| iYurophu | -70.0% | -62.4% | $ 26.9b | + 47.5% (-56%) | + 35.5% (-49%) | $ 11.9b |
| Iinqwelo-moya zaseYurophu zixhomekeke ubukhulu becala kwingeniso yentengiso yamanye amazwe, uqoqosho lwachaphazeleka ngumtshangatshangiso omkhulu we-2 we-COVID-19, kwaye ke ingeniso eyomeleleyo ayifiki de kube kamva ngo-2021 ngokufumaneka kokugonya okuthe gabalala (nangona ingekho kwilizwe elisaphuhlayo liphela Iimarike). | ||||||
| Asia Pacific | -62.0% | -55.1% | Ixabiso: $ 31.7b | + 50.0% (-43%) | + 38.4% (-38%) | Ixabiso: $ 7.5b |
| Iinqwelomoya zaseTshayina kunye noqoqosho lwase China zikhokelela ekuvuseleleni, kunye nemakethi enkulu yasekhaya yaseTshayina ivumela ukubuyela kwinzuzo ngasekupheleni kowama-2020. Impumelelo kulawulo lwentsholongwane inceda ezinye iindawo zommandla, ngaphambi kokusasazwa kwesitofu sokugonya. Ukubaluleka kwemithwalo yenye yezinto ekhokelela kulo mmandla uhlangabezana nokusebenza ngamandla kwezemali kuneminye imimandla. | ||||||
| Phakathi empuma | -73.0% | -64.5% | Ixabiso: $ 7.1b | + 43.0% (-61%) | + 23.6% (-56%) | Ixabiso: $ 3.3b |
| Iindiza zeenqwelo moya zoMbindi Mpuma ziye zacelwa umngeni kukubaluleka kokudibanisa izithuthi ngaphezulu kweendawo zeGulf nakwezinye iindawo, kuba iimarike zokuhamba ngenqwelomoya ende ziye zacotha ukuvula kwakhona. Nangona kunjalo, iinqwelomoya kwiinqila zikhulise ishishini labo lokuhambisa imithwalo kwaye oku kuye kwaba yinto ethile. | ||||||
| ilatin America | -64.0% | -60% | Ixabiso: $ 5.0b | + 39.0% (-50%) | + 34.3% (-46%) | Ixabiso: $ 3.3b |
| Iinqwelo-moya zaseLatin American zifumene inkxaso encinci kurhulumente, ekhokelela ekubhengezweni, kwaye i-COVID-19 isingqinisiso ibingumceli mngeni. Ezinye zeemarike eziphambili zihlala zivulekile kwaye uhambo lomoya luye lwancedwa kukuvulwa kwemida ngesidingo esibi sovavanyo lwe-COVID19 endaweni yokuvalelwa yedwa. Nangona kunjalo, ukuhanjiswa kwesitofu sokugonya kunye nokugonya kusenokuba semva kancinane kwiimarike eziphucukileyo, okukhokelela ekubuyisweni okulibazisekileyo kokusebenza kwemali. | ||||||
| iAfrika | -72.0% | -62.8% | Ixabiso: $ 2.0b | + 35.0% (-62%) | + 21.5% (-55%) | Ixabiso: $ 1.7b |
| Iinqwelo-moya zase-Afrika nazo zifumene inkxaso encinci kurhulumente kwaye kukho ukusilela okuninzi. Ukunqongophala kwezixhobo ezibandayo kummandla kunokulibazisa ukuhanjiswa kwezitofu zokugonya kwaye lo mmandla kulindeleke ukuba ube namava okulibaziseka ekubuyiseni kwezemali |
INTO ONOKUYITHATHA KWELI NQAKU:
- Aggressive cost-cutting is expected to combine with increased demand during 2021 (due to the re-opening of borders with testing and/or the widespread availability of a vaccine) to see the industry turn cash-positive in the fourth quarter of 2021 which is earlier than previously forecast.
- In the face of a half trillion-dollar revenue drop (from $838 billion in 2019 to $328 billion) airlines cut costs by $365 billion (from $795 billion in 2019 to $430 billion in 2020).
- A 45% fall in overall capacity, driven largely by the precipitous fall in passenger demand which took out critical belly capacity for cargo (-24%), pushed yields up by 30% in 2020.
