Ngokusekwe kwindibaniselwano yohlalutyo lweengxelo zikarhulumente, uqikelelo lwenqwelomoya, kunye neeprojekthi ezisisiseko zokufumana ukubuyela komoya kancinci ngaphakathi e-Australia ngentsalela yowama-2020. Ukufikelela kwi-37% yevolumu yonyaka ophelileyo ekuqaleni kukaJulayi, iNkulumbuso uScott Morrison ibonakalise ukubuyela kukhenketho lwangaphakathi kukarhulumente phantsi kwesicwangciso sikaRhulumente esinezigaba ezithathu zokunciphisa izithintelo ze-coronavirus. Esi sicwangciso, siyilelwe ukuvuselela uqoqosho lwasekhaya, sishiya ixesha lokumiselwa kwakhona kohambo kumazwe. Iiprojekthi zeCAPA zinika amandla asekhaya ukufikelela kwi-49% yamanqanaba e-2019 ngeeholide zesikolo zika-Okthobha kunye ne-60% phakathi kuDisemba ka-2020.
I-APA entsha 'yeNdawo yokuXhobisa iiNqwelo moya' iye yaphuhliswa ukubonelela ngendawo yokuhamba ngenqwelomoya kunye nokuhamba ngesikhokelo esomeleleyo kumandla exesha elizayo omoya axhonyiwe:
- Eyona datha yamandla esiseko, ethathwe kwiishedyuli ze-OAG kunye nedatha yoqwalaselo lwenqwelomoya kwindawo yogcino lwedatha yeCAPA Fleet;
- Izigqibo nezibhengezo ezenziwe yiNkulumbuso kunye neeNkulumbuso zikaRhulumente malunga nemida yokuhamba kunye nokwazisa ngemida;
- Uvavanyo olwenziwe yiCAPA, ngokusekwe kwiingxelo zexesha lokwenyani kunye nenkqubo yeendaba eyahlukileyo yemihla ngemihla eqokelela ngaphezulu kwamabali angama-300 yonke imihla:
- Izicwangciso zendlela yenqwelo moya kunye namaxabiso;
- Ukuzimisela koluntu kunye nokuthanda kwabo ukubhabha;
- Ukuqaliswa kweekhrayitheriya ezisemgangathweni kwimeko yezococeko kwiinqwelomoya nakwiinqwelomoya;
- 'Ubungakanani obulinganayo' beenqwelomoya ukuthelekisa imfuno.
- Uqikelelo lomthamo wenqwelo moya luhlaziywa ngexesha lokwenyani, njengoko kusenzeka imicimbi emikhulu emikhulu.
Ukubuya okukhokelwe kukubonelelwa kwiinyanga ezintathu ezizayo njengoko iinqwelomoya zihenda abakhweli ukuba babuyele emoyeni ngamaxabiso aphantsi ngelixa kugxininiswa ukuphuculwa kwezilumkiso zempilo nezokhuseleko. Njengokwakhiwa kwakhona kwemfuno, ubonelelo (lomthamo kunye nothungelwano lwendlela) luya kuhlengahlengiswa ukuze kunyuswe isivuno kwaye imarike iya kuphinda ibuye. I-CAPA iya kubeka esweni uhlaziyo lweshishini kwaye ihlaziye rhoqo iModeli.
Usihlalo uEmeritus, uPeter Harbison uthe:
“I-Australia lelinye lawona mazwe abekwe kakuhle kwihlabathi liphela ukucinezela amaza okuqala osulelo lwe-COVID-19. Ukuba oku kuyaqhubeka kwaye sikuphephe ukuqhambuka kwesibini, imakethi yomoya yasekhaya yase-Australia inokubona iimpawu zobomi phakathi enyakeni kunye nokuphucuka okuzinzileyo ngeKrisimesi. Nangona kunjalo, asilindelanga ukubona amanqanaba e-2019 endiza yasekhaya efikeleleka kwakhona kulo nyaka. Amazwe aphesheya aya kubethwa nzima kwaye kunokuthatha iminyaka emininzi ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo. Nangona kunjalo, oku kuya kuba yinzuzo kwimakethi yasekhaya - ngokunokwenzeka ikwamkele nokusebenza kweTrans Tasman ”.
Iimarike zamanye amazwe akunakulindeleka ukuba ziphinde zenzeke kwaye i-CAPA Airline Capacity Model ibone amandla omoya wamazwe aphesheya (amanani ezihlalo) asephantsi ngama-92% unyaka nonyaka ngoJulayi, -86% ngo-Okthobha, kunye -85% ngoDisemba. Umbhobho weTrans Tasman onokubakho kunye neNew Zealand ufakwe kwiCAPA Model ukusukela ngo-Agasti, kunye nonxibelelwano lweePacific Islands ngexesha leeholide zeKrisimesi / zoNyaka oMtsha.
Imodeli isebenzisa la maxesha alandelayo okuqalisa kwakhona kwamandla omoya. Yimodeli yokusebenzisana, esekwe ngokugqwesileyo evumela abasebenzisi ukuba bajonge okucingelwayo malunga nokuqala kokuhamba kwasekhaya (okusekwe kurhulumente) nakwiimarike zamanye amazwe, ukwakha umfanekiso opheleleyo womthamo.
Umthamo wokuqalisa kwakhona amandla okucinga
| Isigaba | igama | Amandla (% 'Okuqhelekileyo' = 2019) | Inkcazo / uqikelelo |
| 1 | UZero / Umgangatho | 0% | Ukuvalwa kokuhamba kukhokelela kumhlaba wonke wenqwelo moya |
| 2 | amathambo | 5% | Iinqwelo-moya zibonelela ngenethiwekhi 'yamathambo' esisiseko nokuba ngaba ngokuzithandela kwayo okanye phantsi kolunye uhlobo lwenkxaso karhulumente / karhulumente, umzekelo:
|
| 3 | Ukuqalisa kwakhona kwezorhwebo A - 'kuthintelwe ngokugqibeleleyo' | 25% | Iinqwelo moya ziyaqala ukusebenza 'ngokuthintelweyo' kwimisebenzi yorhwebo, umzekelo: ukulungiselela:
|
| 4 | Ukuqalisa kwakhona kwezorhwebo B - 'Esisiseko' | 50% | Iinqwelo-moya zisebenza 'ezisisiseko' ngokuthengisa, umzekelo: ukulungiselela:
|
| 5 | Ukuqalisa kwakhona kwezorhwebo C - 'Ukunyanzelwa' | 75% | Iinqwelo-moya zisebenza 'ngokunyanzelekileyo' kurhwebo, umzekelo: ukulungiselela:
|
| 6 | Ukuqalisa kwakhona kwezorhwebo D - 'Umgangatho' | 100% | Iinqwelo-moya zisebenza 'imigangatho' okanye imisebenzi yesiqhelo yorhwebo, umz. Ukulungiselela izinto ezenziwa rhoqo:
|
INTO ONOKUYITHATHA KWELI NQAKU:
- It is an interactive, excel-based model that allows users to then view the assumptions around the resumption of travel in domestic (state-based) and international markets, to build the overall capacity picture.
- International markets are unlikely to recover and the CAPA Airline Capacity Model sees international air capacity (seat numbers) still down by 92% year-on-year in July, -86% in October, and -85% in December.
- Based on a combination of analysis of government statements, airline projections, and underlying demand projects a slow, phased recovery in domestic air capacity in Australia through the remainder of 2020.
