U-2008 unobunzima kwishishini lasehotele laseMelika

Los Angeles, California (eTN) - Kwi-American Lodging Investment Summit (ALIS) ebibanjelwe kwiveki ephelileyo e-LA, iingcali eziphezulu zehotele zibikezela ukunyibilika kweshishini ngeentsuku zangoku, okanye ukudodobala koqoqosho okuzayo. Iziphumo eziphambili ngo-2008 zibonisa amazinga okuhlala; amaxabiso avareji kunye neengeniso ukuthamba ngokuphakathi e-US, ngokutsho Oxford Economics. Imbonakalo yentengiselwano yotyalo-mali ehotele eUnited States isenokungabonakali iqaqambile, kodwa ingaphucuka. Unyaka ka-2007 ubone amathontsi amakhulu, kodwa i-2008 inokuphinda ibuyele kwezinye iimarike kunye nezixeko eziphambili emva kwee-hiccups ezimbalwa.

NgokukaMark Lomanno, umongameli weSmith Travel Research, ishishini libone abantu abahlala phantsi kwi-0.1 ekhulwini kunye ne-avareji yezinga lemihla ngemihla okanye i-ADR yehla nge-5.9 ekhulwini ngo-Agasti ka-2007. Ukukhula kobuqhophololo ngo-2007. Izinga lobugebenga le-CMBS kwicandelo lendawo yokulala libe lisezantsi kakhulu nge-0.6 yeepesenti kwikota yesithathu ka-2007. Ukhumbule, "Imfuno kwiimarike eziphezulu ze-25 ngaphambi kwe-11 Septemba yenyuka ngokukhawuleza, ngaphambi kokuba amaxabiso aphantsi awenze ukuba ushishino kwiimarike eziphezulu ze-25 zidodobale nangaphambi ko-2001." Ukulandela ukudipha okukhawulezayo kunye ne-spike ngequbuliso emva kwe-9-11, imfuno kwi-25 ephezulu yacaba. Unikezelo aluzange luthathe kwakhona.

“Ukudodobala koqoqosho namhlanje kuya kuchaphazela iimarike ezingama-25 eziphezulu zase-US ukusuka ezantsi ukuya phezulu kunokuba phezulu ukuya phezulu. Amacandelo emarike ahlukeneyo aya kuchaphazeleka ngokwahlukileyo ngokuhla ukusuka ezantsi ukuya phezulu kwakhona. Ubonelelo kunye nemfuno iya kukhula kuwo onke amacandelo kodwa amaxabiso aya kuhlala ethambile kwindawo yentengiso. Iimfuno zehotele ezikumgangatho ophezulu kunye neziphezulu kwiminyaka edlulileyo zaqala ukwehla ngokukhawuleza kuneehotele zoqoqosho ezibonisa umfanekiso ozinzile, ”utshilo uLomanno. Kodwa imfuno yanamhlanje yezinto eziphezulu kunye ne-upscale izinzile; amaxabiso kunye nee-ADR zomelele; kunye neepropati zoqoqosho ziyakhula kodwa ngesantya esisezantsi.

Ngumfanekiso ojongeka ngokwahlukileyo okwangoku, obonisa ixesha elicothayo kushishino lwehotele. Iimarike eziphezulu ezingama-25 kunye neepropati ezikwizinga eliphezulu ziya kuchaphazeleka kodwa hayi kakhulu njengeemarike ezikwinqanaba lesibini nelenqanaba lesithathu okanye ezo zikwisiphelo esisezantsi sesikali samaxabiso. “Kukho amagumbi angama-211,000 asakhayo e-US, malunga ne-166,000 acwangciselwe ukuvulwa ngo-2008; kodwa ngama-65 ekhulwini kuphela aya kuvulwa ngokwenene. Kuya kubakho ukwanda kwamagumbi okuvala, ukunyuka kwe-net kwi-2.2 ekhulwini ukuya kwi-2.3 ekhulwini; imfuno iyakunyuka iye phezulu ukuya kutsho kwi-1.4 yeepesenti esezantsi,” utshilo.

U-R. Mark Woodworth, umongameli we-PKF Hospitality Research, uthe xa kuziwa kwizindlu, iimarike ezininzi sele ziphantsi koqoqosho olunzulu. Abathengi benza izigqibo ezinzima ngenxa yokuwa kwe-real estate, i-sub-prime mess, ehlanganiswe kunyuswa kwexabiso le-oyile negesi. “Ixhala, musa ukuphaphazela. Yingxaki yezemali yenkqubo yehlabathi. Apho sikhoyo ngokwenene ludakumba olusempilweni kwintengiso kunye nokubonelela kunye nemfuno,” utshilo.

IMelika yaqala le minyaka ilishumi ikwimeko entle. UWoodworth unethemba malunga noqikelelo lwalo nyaka mtsha. “Amaxesha angcono abonwe kule minyaka mi-2 ukuya kwemi-3 idlulileyo. Sijonge kweli cala namhlanje. Yintoni elungileyo ngoqoqosho luka-2008? Siza kubona ukuhla kwamaxabiso enzala nto leyo eza kugcina iindleko zetyala ziphantsi. Idola elibuthathaka lithetha ukunyuka kokuhamba kwangaphakathi (okuye kwaphakama ukususela ngo-2006); amaxabiso aphezulu eemveliso ancede ekuyekeni ukwanda kwentswela-ngqesho nto leyo eye yanceda ukuba kuthotywe iindleko zabasebenzi basehotele.” Kwaye nangona amaxesha ayesenza kube nzima ukuba kwakhiwe iihotele, bambalwa abaninizihotele abakwaziyo ukwakha kwaye bakwenzile nangona ukwehla, utshilo uWoodworth.

Ayiyiyo yonke into emnandi. Yintoni engalunganga ngo-2008? Oku kungaqiniseki kuyayilimaza imfuno; iindleko zokuhamba zihlala zinyuka; kwaye iingcali zilindele ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwiminyaka eyi-10.

“Siqaphela ukonyuka kwamanqaku nge-100 ukusukela kwikota yesithathu ka-2006, kodwa imfuno ibisemva kobonelelo ukusukela ngo-'06. Sibe neminyaka emi-2 yokukhula okungaphantsi komndilili ngo-2001-03, nto leyo eyatshintsha ingqesho iyonke – esona singqinisiso siphambili semfuno yendawo yokuhlala,” utshilo uWoodworth. Ulumkise kwangaphambili, le kota yesi-3 ka-2008 iya kubona eyona ndawo iphantsi yokukhula. Ngo-2008, unikezelo luza kudlula imfuno; nangona kunjalo imfuno iyakunyuka ngo-2009. Izithuba zengqesho ziya kuba ngaphantsi kancinane kunomndilili ukusuka kunyaka ozayo, kodwa izinga lokukhula kunye neeRevPARs ziya kuba ntle ngo-09, wongeza uWoodworth.

Ukuze kungenelwe eli shishini, isicwangciso sokuvuselela siya kufaka imali entsha kuqoqosho njengaleyo yenziwe ngowama-2001-2002. I-stimulus yaloo mali iya kubamba ukudodobala kwengqondo. Nangona kunjalo, ayingonyango-konke kumjikelo wezindlu, utshilo uGene Sperling, owayesakuba nguMcebisi wezoQoqosho weSizwe weWhite House ngexesha likaMongameli wangaphambili uBill Clinton, kunye nowayesakuba ngumlawuli weBhunga lezoQoqosho leSizwe. Wongeze ukuba i-Federal Reserve ibonise ngeentsuku zokugqibela ukuba inokusebenza 'ngesibindi nangokukhawuleza' emva kokusika amanqaku asezantsi angama-150. “Ii-Feds ziyinike intengiso ukuzithemba kwakhona. Kodwa andiziboni iireyithi zihamba kwakhona ngokukhawuleza. Owona mbuzo ngowokuba amaxabiso ehla kangakanani na. Uluvo lokukhenkcisa amaxabiso aphezulu njengokusilela kuya kudala inkuthazo yabantu ukuba baqokelele kunye. Nge-dollar kunye ne-fiscal position as weak as it is, imibuzo iqhubeka malunga nokuba i-Fed ingaba ndlongondlongo kwaye inokukhuthaza iWashington ukuba idibanise izinga lokunyuka kunye nokukhula, "watsho encwina, akukho bhetyebhetye lukhulu apho.

USperling ugxininise ukuba inani elikhulu labantu linokuhlala kumakhaya abo ukuba banokuba nenqanaba elimiselweyo leminyaka engama-30 kwinqanaba elithile elifanelekileyo. Ukuvalwa, okugxininiswe ebumelwaneni, kube neziphumo ezibi kumaxabiso asekhaya kuye wonke umntu. “U-Hillary Clinton kunye no-Rhuluneli u-Arnold Schwarzenegger bacebise ukuthotywa kwamaxabiso njengokusilela iminyaka embalwa. Kodwa abantu abaninzi bakhalaza. Ingxaki ngoku kukuba singena kwixesha lohlengahlengiso,” utshilo.

Ubhukisho lweeprojekthi zeLomanno ezisekwe kumaxabiso ngenxa ye-intanethi ziya kufumana ukuthamba. Uthe iireyithi ngo-2008 ziya kuba sisi-5.2 ekhulwini kancinci ukusuka ku-2007; nangona kunjalo, lo mkhwa awuyi kuvakala kwiimarike ezinkulu okanye amanqanaba aphezulu. "Ukuba unikezelo kunye nemfuno kunye neenombolo ze-ADR zokubikezela zichanekile, i-REVPAR iya kubona ukukhula kweepesenti ze-4.4," watsho.

“Izinga lotshintshiselwano eliphantsi libe ngumhlobo weshishini lehotele kulo nyaka uphelileyo. Ukubhukisha kuyo yonke i-Expedia kunye ne-ADR yekota yesi-4 ka-2007 bekumnandi. Ukuba sihlengahlengisa inkcitho yabantu baseCanada okanye abantu base-Australia abandwendwela e-US, bahlawula kancinci ngemali yabo yasekhaya xa besiza e-US ngelixa iihotele zifumana ngokupheleleyo. Sibona umzekelo, usapho lwaseJamani luchitha i-Euro engama-26 ngaphezulu xa besiza (akukho nto kubo), kodwa iyinto evuthuzayo kumthengisi ofumana okungaphezulu,” utshilo uPaul Brown, umongameli we-Expedia North America. Wongeze ukuba i-20 yepesenti yokwanda komthamo womoya kunye namaxabiso omoya, umahluko wezinga lotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle 'oluqulathe kwangaphambili' abantu baseMelika abaphumayo kwaye banyanzelise uhambo lwasekhaya ukuba lunyuke, lwenza izinto ezingundoqo ezinefuthe kwimfuno yendawo yokuhlala iyonke.

Amaxabiso ehotele kwiipropathi ezikwizinga eliphezulu ahlala elungile. UBrown uthe, abathengi basenayo imbono yexabiso; ziqhutywa yintengiso, amaxabiso kunye nezibonelelo. Iihotele ngo-2008 ziya kwandisa amaxesha okubhukisha ngepesenti ezi-4 kunye neentengiso ezikhuthazwayo. Abathengi bahlala besabela kwiintengiso zentengiso. Abathengi, kolu qoqosho ludodobala, bathatha ithuba lelona xabiso liphantsi lokurhweba.
"Ukuba izibikezelo zethu zokubonelela kunye nemfuno zichanekile, iindawo zokuhlala ziya kukhula ngeepesenti ze-63.2 kwi-2008 ukuya kwi-63.7 yeepesenti ngo-2009 kwibhodi yonke," kusho u-Lomanno.

UWoodworth wathi: “Ukuba uqikelelo lwethu luchanekile, isiqingatha seemarike ezingama-50 eziphambili eUnited States, ziya kuhla kulo nyaka ngenxa yokubonelela kunye neemeko ezifunwayo. Ngo-2009, unikezelo luya kukhawulezisa xa kuthelekiswa nemfuno. Ukukhula kwe-RevPAR kuya kuba kuhle kulo nyaka. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso akuzi kudala iingxaki kwimarike yemisebenzi. Ukuthamba kwemarike kuya kuba lixesha elifutshane nje. Amaxabiso entengo yeehotele asezantsi ngokwembali ngo-2007 esezantsi kwesikali somlinganiselo; nangona kunjalo, kuya kubakho ukonyuka kwesiseko se-160 ukuya kwintengiso kude kube sekupheleni kweminyaka elishumi. "

Kunyaka wonyulo, unikezelo luya kukhula ngeepesenti ze-2.3 ngaphezulu kwemfuno, utshilo uLomanno.
Ukulandelela iziphumo zabo kunyaka wonyulo ukususela ngo-1929, xa abantu behla, i-2/3 yexesha, umgqatswa weRiphabhlikhi uphumelele unyulo. “Xa izithuba zonyaka wonyulo ziwela ngaphantsi komndilili wexesha elide, iipesenti ezingama-55, umgqatswa weDemokhrasi uphumelele. Sikholelwa ukuba siza kuhlala ngaphantsi kwexesha elide,” uvale ngelo uWoodworth.