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Ukubuyiswa koKhenketho eDominican buxoki? I-Simpson's Paradox ijonge kwiNyaniso

ilizwe lasedominic
Ibhalwe ngu UGalileo Violini

Iziphumo zobhubhane kukhenketho kwihlabathi liphela kwaye kuqoqosho lwehlabathi lube lukhulu kakhulu. Igalelo lezokhenketho kwiMveliso yeHlabathi yeHlabathi ngo-2020- $ 4.7 trillion- belimalunga nesiqingatha sowama-2019. Kwiphepha lakutshanje, umlawuli jikelele ophethe iNkomfa yeZizwe eziManyeneyo kwezoRhwebo noPhuhliso (i-UNCTAD) uqikelela ukuba imeko enethemba, ekupheleni konyaka, siya kuba ngama-60% ngaphantsi ko-2019.

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  1. Ngenxa yokuba ukhenketho luyinto ebalulekileyo kuqoqosho lwehlabathi, ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo kuwo onke amazwe kubalulekile.
  2. Kutshanje iSebe lezoKhenketho laseDominican lenze idatha ebonisa ukuba eli candelo livuseleleke ngendlela emangalisayo.
  3. Ngelixa idatha ichanekile, ukutolikwa kungashiya umbuzo omnye ngokubonisa ukubuyela kwakhona.

Ukubuyisela kwimeko yesiqhelo yinjongo yawo onke amazwe, kuba ukhenketho luyinto ebalulekileyo kuqoqosho lwehlabathi, kodwa ngakumbi kulawo anokhenketho njengenxalenye ebalulekileyo yoqoqosho.

Kwiiveki ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo, Icandelo loMphathiswa Wezokhenketho ivelise idatha eza kubonisa ukungafihli kwaye ibabuyise ngokuphawulekayo kwezokhenketho ezingenayo zaseDominican. Idatha ichanekile, kodwa ukutolikwa kwabo kufuna uhlalutyo olubeka ukukhanya kwezibane kunye nezithunzi zolu hlaziyo, ngokusekwe kwidatha yehlabathi edibanisa idatha ekhethekileyo yeempawu ezahlukeneyo.

Kwiminyaka engamashumi amahlanu, kuye kwafundwa isiphumo esaye saqapheleka ngaphezulu kwenkulungwane eyadlulayo, isimanga sikaSimpson. Izigqibo zobuxoki zinokufikelelwa xa amanani edibanisa idatha engahambelaniyo. Ngaphandle kokungena kwiinkcukacha zalethiyori yezibalo, siyaqaphela ukuba ivumela ukuqonda imida ethile yokutolikwa kwedatha nguMphathiswa Wezokhenketho waseDominican, idatha, eqinisekileyo, esiphindayo ukunqanda ukungaqondani, akubuzwa.

Ukubaluleka kokuyiqonda le mida akufuneki kuthetheleleke kwilizwe apho, ngo-2019, ngendlela yokufumana imali yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle, ukhenketho lube negalelo le-8.4% kwi-GDP, emele i-36.4% yokuthumela iimpahla neenkonzo kwamanye amazwe. Ngaphaya koko, ukhenketho, ngaphandle kokugoba nge-13% xa kuthelekiswa ne-2018, kube negalelo kwi-2019 phantse i-30% yoTyalo-mali oluthe ngqo lwaNgaphandle.

Ngezi zizathu, ukuqinisekiswa ngenyameko kwengxelo ukuba kwiRiphabhlikhi yaseDominicanIcandelo lezokhenketho liyishiya ngasemva ingxaki ebangelwe bubhubhane we-COVID-19 ibalulekile kwimigaqo-nkqubo yelizwe, kunye nokukhokela izigqibo ze-microeconomic zabaqhubi beli candelo.

Masikhumbule idatha ephambili ekhankanywe nguMphathiswa:

-Ukungabikho kwabahlali ngenqwelomoya, ngo-Agasti walo nyaka, bamele i-96% yabo bakwi-2019, umkhwa ongaphezulu kokungqinwa ngokwenzekileyo kwisiqingatha sokuqala sikaSeptemba.

Lo mkhwa ungqinisiswa luhlahlelo lwenyanga nenyanga lokufumana kwakhona esi salathisi ukusukela oko wachacha. xa kuthelekiswa ne-2019, ibikhula, ukusuka kwi-34% ngoJanuwari-Februwari, ukuya kuthi ga kuma-50% ngoMatshi-Epreli, ukuya phantse kuma-80% ngoMeyi-Juni kunye nama-95% ngoJulayi nango-Agasti.

Ukufika kwabahlali abangabo baseDominican bekhule ngokuzinzileyo kangangeenyanga ezilishumi.

Ipesenti yabakhenkethi abahlala kwiihotele ngama-73%.

Zonke ezi ziyinyani kwaye zibhaliwe. Nangona kunjalo, uSimpson usikhumbuza ukuba babhekisa kwiisampulu ezidibanisa amaqela ahlukeneyo kunye namaxesha ahlukeneyo.

Uhlalutyo ngokubanzi lwexesha luya kuchaneka ukuba bekukho uzinzo ekufikeni kwinqanaba lenyanga kwisithuba esikhethiweyo sokuthelekisa. Kwakungenjalo, kwaye iinyanga zika-2019 azilingani nokuthelekiswa no-2021. Kwakuloo nyaka, abaqhubi bezokhenketho bachaphazela ngesandla ukusweleka kwabakhenkethi abathile phakathi kukaMeyi noJuni, okwabuyisela ukukhula kwezokhenketho eMntla Melika Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka (phantse i-10%) liyehla nge-3% ngeenyanga ezilishumi zokuqala (i-4% ukuba inani labangaphandle liqwalaselwe).

Oku kufuna ukwahlula ukuba ingakanani i-96% ngo-Agasti okanye ngaphezulu kwe-110% kwiiveki ezimbini zokuqala zale nyanga kungenxa yokubuyiselwa kwenani (abafikayo abangama-2021) nokuba ingakanani na into yokwehla kwedinomineyitha (ukufika ngo-2019).

Esi siphumo sinzima ngakumbi ukuba abafikayo baphulwe phantsi kusekwe kwelinye inhomogeneity, kwahlula abo bangabahlali baseDominican kwabo bangabahlali.

Senza njalo kule theyibhile ilandelayo apho sibonisa khona oku idatha, yeenyanga zikaJanuwari-Agasti, eqala ngo-2013.

Unyaka201320142015201620172018201920202021
 D414598433922498684546051538350616429707570345888811156
 F289187031750333394208361914738617744027620395646612936502081389

Ezi datha, ngaphandle kokuthandabuza ukuthelekiswa koMphathiswa kwinyanga ka-Agasti, ziyilinganisile, ngenxa yokuba ngaphezulu kweenyanga ezisibhozo, ukufika kwabo bonke ngama-60% abo be-2019 kwaye kufuneka sibuyele ku-2013 ukufumana inani elisezantsi. . Olu thelekiso lokugqibela lubhekisa kwidatha iyonke, kodwa ukuba besinokulungisa ingqalelo kuleyo yabaphambukeli bodwa, oku kuya kunika i-53%, xa kuthelekiswa ne-2019, kunye ne-72% xa kuthelekiswa ne-2013.

Ukuqwalaselwa kwabangaphandle abangahlali kubalulekile kuba abahlali baseDominican abangahlaliyo kusenokwenzeka ukuba basebenzise kancinci iinkonzo ezongezelelweyo ezinje ngeehotele, iivenkile zokutyela, ezothutho. Oku akuqwalaseli kakuhle kakhulu kuxhaswa kukuhlala kwehotele, ethi, ngaphandle kokuba ingabaphambukeli i-86% yabo bamkelweyo, ingaphantsi kwesi sixa, ngelixa ngokwembali iipesenti ezimbini bezikade zilandelelana.

Kukho enye idatha engahambelaniyo enxulumene nokhenketho olungenayo ekufuneka ibe yinkxalabo. Le datha, inikwe kule theyibhile ilandelayo, ibhekisa ekonakaleni kokufika kwengingqi yemvelaphi yabangahlaliyo.

Unyakaamantla EmelikaiYurophuamazantsi EmelikakuMbindi Merika
201860.8%22.4%12.6%3.9%
201961.9%21.6%12%4.1%
202061.2%24.7%10.7%3%
202170.6%14.6%9.5%5%

Olona lwazi lubalulekileyo ekubonakaliseni kwethu kukukhula kwezokhenketho eMntla Melika ezihamba nokwehla kwento evela eYurophu. Ukuba le datha ithathelwa ingqalelo kunye naleyo inxulumene nobuzwe, nefuthe elingathanga ngqo esithe sathetha ngalo, kubonakala ngathi ifuthe elibi lokuncipha kukhenketho lwaseYurophu alunakubuyekezwa kukwanda kokhenketho lwaseMntla Melika.

Olu qikelelo luxhaswe yidatha yaseYurophu malunga nokubuyiselwa kwetrafikhi yomoya yaseYurophu. Ukuthelekiswa phakathi kweli hlobo kunye neminyaka edlulileyo kubonisa ukuba yi-40% kuphela yendlela ye-2019 efunyenweyo, ephuculiweyo xa ithelekiswa ne-2020, xa ukubuyiswa bekuyi-27%. Kwaye kufanele ukuba kongezwe ukuba ukugcwala komoya akusiso isibonisi esifanayo, kuba eYurophu kuye kwakho ukubuyiswa okuncinci kwetrafikhi enomdla kwiRiphabhlikhi yaseDominican. Ngapha koko, eyona nto ifunyenwe ikakhulu yayiziinqwelomoya zexabiso eliphakathi e-Yuropu. Namhlanje, bamele i-71.4% yetotali, ngelixa iminyaka emibini edlulileyo babemele i-57.1% kuphela, kwaye akufuneki kutyeshelwe ukuba iindawo ekufakwa kuzo igalelo kakhulu kwesi siphumo, ngandlela thile, zimele ezinye iindlela kunikezelo lwabakhenkethi baseCaribbean.

Kule nto kufuneka ongeze ukuba amanyathelo e-European Green Pass awaluthandi ukhenketho eYurophu nokuba kungenxa yokuba isitofu sokugonya esisetyenziswa kakhulu eDominican Republic, iSinovac ayikuvumeli ukufumana iGreen Pass. Oku kunokuba kungathandabuzeki, kodwa ngokuqinisekileyo kuyachaphazela icandelo le-arhente yokuhamba, ukuze umfanekiso obonakalayo kukuba kusekho indlela ende yokuhamba ngaphambi kokuba ukhenketho lwaseDominican lubuyele kumanqanaba alo angaphambi kobhubhane.

Ukuthembela ekuvuseleleni imeko yangaphambi kobhubhane ngenxa yolawulo lwendyikityha mhlawumbi inethemba, kwaye kuyo nayiphi na imeko, kubonakala ngathi ayinakwenzeka kwixesha elifutshane.

Oku kuthetha ukuba, ngaphandle kokunika ukubaluleka kakhulu ekuphuculweni kwamanqaku okugqibela kwezi pesenti, kuyafuneka ukuba ucinge ngemigaqo-nkqubo yokuvuselelwa ejonge phakathi ku-2023.

Ingxelo yakutshanje yeBhunga leHlabathi lezoKhenketho nezoKhenketho ikhuthaza amanyathelo asebenzayo oorhulumente, anje ngokutyala imali kunye nokutsala utyalo-mali lwecandelo labucala kwiziseko zophuhliso zedijithali kunye nokukhuthaza iindawo ezithile zokuhamba, ezinjengokhenketho lwezonyango okanye ukhenketho lwe-MICE. Oku kuthetha umgaqo-nkqubo wehlabathi, ongengowamacandelo obandakanya namanye amacandelo oluntu.

Ukuqwalaselwa okufanayo kwenziwa kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo ngumlawuli jikelele ophethe i-UNCTAD, enyanzelisa isidingo sokuphinda acinge ngemodeli yophuhliso lokhenketho, ukukhuthaza ukhenketho lwesizwe nolwasemaphandleni, kunye nokwenza kwedijithali.

Iziseko zophuhliso ezikhoyo elizweni ziyawavumela la manyathelo, kwaye oku kufuna umgaqo-nkqubo owomeleleyo wokukhuthaza, uququzelelwa kunye necandelo labucala, ngaphandle kokwoneliseka yinto yokuba ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo kwenzeka. Into yokuba ekupheleni kwalo nyaka bekukho i-4.5 yezigidi okanye i-5 yezigidi zokufika, isencinci xa ithelekiswa neminyaka edlulileyo, ayizukuwenza mahluko mkhulu, ngaphandle kokuba iimeko ziyenziwa zokuvuselelwa okunamandla kwecandelo, eliya kuthi livumele ilizwe igcine indawo yayo ekhokelayo kukhenketho lweCaribbean.

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