Ngelixa uninzi lweCaribbean lusengozini, iBahamas kunye ne-US State yaseFlorida zikwizilumkiso eziphezulu. INkanyamba uDorian ihleli isahlulo sesine sesaqhwithi. IZiko leNkanyamba leSizwe likhuphe uvavanyo lwakusasa ngoMgqibelo ngeNkanyamba uDorian. kwi-4 AM EST kwindlela eya eBahamas naseFlorida.
Uninzi lwabakhenkethi babesuswe kwiziqithi ezichaphazelekayo zeBahamas.
Ingxelo ithi uDorian uyaqhubeka nokubonakala enomtsalane kwimifanekiso yesathelayithi ngale ntsasa, enendawo yolungelelwaniso ephezulu yamafu abandayo ajikeleze iliso elibanzi le-10-15 n mi. Akukhange kubekho datha intsha yenqwelomoya ukusukela kwisaqhwithi ukusukela ngengcebiso yokugqibela. Nangona kunjalo, ukubonakala kwesathelayithi kutshintshile kancinane okoko inqwelo-moya yayigqibele kwisaqhwithi, kwaye uqikelelo lwamandla e-satellite azimeleyo atshintshe kancinci kwiiyure ezininzi ezidlulileyo. Ngokusekwe koku, amandla okuqala ahlala ayi-120 kt.
Isindululo sokuqala ngoku yi-290/10. Umgangatho ophantsi ukuya kwinqanaba eliphakathi eliphantsi ukuya kwintshona yesiphepho kufuneka uyihambise ngasentshona-ntshona-ntshona ukuya ngasentshona kwi-48 h elandelayo okanye njalo, ngesantya esiphambili sihamba kancinci njengoko iziko lidlula kufutshane okanye ngaphezulu kwe-Abacos kunye Grand Bahama. Isikhokelo somkhondo wale nxalenye yomkhondo sihlanganiswe ngokuqinileyo, kwaye umkhondo omtsha uqikelelo lwe-ECMWF, i-UKMET, kunye ne-HCCA yokulungisa iimodeli zemvumelwano. Uqikelelo lwengoma luba yingxaki ngakumbi emva kwama-48 h. Iimodeli zehlabathi ezisetyenziswa rhoqo yi-NHC, kunye ne-HWRF yengingqi kunye ne-HMON, iimodeli, zenze enye inguquko ukuya empuma ukuya kuthi ga apho kungekho namnye kubo oqikelela ukuba uDorian uza kuwa eFlorida. Nangona kunjalo,
Ukuhlanganiswa kwe-UKMET kuthetha ukuba kuseza i-hurricane phezu kwe-peninsula yaseFlorida, njengamalungu amaninzi e-GFS kunye ne-ECMWF. Isibikezelo esitsha somzila we-72-120 h siya kusiwa ngasempuma ukuze sihlale empuma yonxweme yaseFlorida, kwaye ilele phakathi kwengqikelelo yakudala kunye neemodeli ezahlukeneyo zesivumelwano. Uhlengahlengiso olongezelelekileyo kwingoma eqikelelweyo inokuba yimfuneko kamva namhlanje ukuba iindlela ezikhoyo ziyaqhubeka. Kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba umkhondo omtsha awuthinteli ukwenziwa kweDorian kunxweme lwaseFlorida, njengoko iinxalenye ezinkulu zonxweme zihlala zikwikhonkco lokungaqiniseki. Kwakhona, iimpembelelo ezibonakalayo zinokwenzeka nokuba iziko lihlala kude nonxweme.
IDorian kufuneka ihlale kwimeko entle kangangeentsuku eziyi-3-4, kwaye isikhokelo sokuqina sibonisa ukuba iya kuhlala iyinkanyamba ngeli xesha. Isibikezelo esitsha sobungqongqo sifuna ukomelezwa kancinci namhlanje, emva koko sibonisa ukuba buthathaka okucothayo okulandela imeko yesikhokelo sokuqina. Ngeli xesha, utshintsho olukhulu kumandla lunokuvela kubunzima bokuqikelela imijikelo yokutshintsha iliso. Emva kwexesha kwixesha eliqikelelweyo, ukwanda kwe-shear ethe nkqo kunye nokusondela emhlabeni kulindeleke ukuba kubangele buthathaka.
Imiyalezo ephambili:
- Ixesha elide lesoyikiso esisesichengeni sobomi kunye nemimoya ebhudla ngamandla yenkanyamba inokwenzeka kwiindawo ezithile zasemantla ntshona eBahamas, ngakumbi kwiiIqithi ze-Abaco kunye nesiqithi iGrand Bahama. Isilumkiso senkanyamba siyasebenza kwezi ndawo, kwaye abahlali kufuneka bamamele ingcebiso enikezwe ngamagosa akhawulezileyo engingqi kwaye amalungiselelo abo enkanyamba agqitywe namhlanje.
- Uqhankqalazo olusongela ubomi kunye nemimoya ebhudla ngamandla yenkanyamba isenokwenzeka kwiindawo ezithile zonxweme lwaseFlorida ngasempumalanga ekuqaleni ukuya embindini weveki ezayo, kodwa ukusukela oko uDorian eqikelelwe ukuba anciphise ajike ajonge emantla kufutshane nonxweme. Kungekudala ukumisela ukuba nini okanye phi umoya ophezulu kunye nemimoya eya kubakho. Abahlali kufuneka babe nesicwangciso sabo senkanyamba, bazi ukuba bakwindawo yokufuduka kwenkanyamba, kwaye bamamele ingcebiso enikezwe ngamagosa akhawulezileyo alapha.
- Umngcipheko wemimoya enamandla kunye nesoyikiso sobomi esonyukayo uyanda kumanxweme aseGeorgia naseMzantsi Carolina phakathi evekini ezayo. Abahlali bezo ndawo kufuneka baqhubeke nokubeka iliso kwinkqubela phambili kaDorian.
- Imvula enamandla, ekwaziyo ukusongela ubomi bezikhukhula, kulindeleke kwiindawo ezithile zeBahamas kunye namanxweme asempuma mpuma eMelika kule mpelaveki kuninzi lweveki ezayo.
IIMPAWU ZOKUSETYENZISWA KWEZENKQUBO NEMIMOYA EMAHLA
INIT 31 / 0900Z 25.8N 72.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 31 / 1800Z 26.1N 74.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 01 / 0600Z 26.5N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 01 / 1800Z 26.7N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 02 / 0600Z 26.9N 78.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 03 / 0600Z 27.5N 79.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 04 / 0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
I-120H 05 / 0600Z 32.0N 80.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
INTO ONOKUYITHATHA KWELI NQAKU:
- A low- to the mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer it west-northwestward to the westward for the next 48 h or so, with the forward speed becoming very slow as the center passes near or over the Abacos and Grand Bahama.
- Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the early to the middle part of next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds will occur.
- The new track forecast for 72-120 h will be moved eastward to stay east of the coast of Florida, and it lies between the old forecast and the various consensus models.
